The Russian army announced on Thursday the start of the withdrawal of its troops from Kherson, a strategic city in southern Ukraine that it had occupied since the end of February. The commander of Russian operations in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, presented this withdrawal as a way to save the thousands of Russian soldiers, trapped with their backs to the Dnieper River and under heavy pressure from the enemy.
Since the end of August, the Ukrainian army has been carrying out a wide-ranging counteroffensive in the region, which has allowed it to retake dozens of towns using long-range, high-precision artillery supplied by the West. kyiv has been shelling Russian ammunition depots and supply lines for weeks. Selective executions of senior pro-Russian officials have also increased.
“The enemy had no choice but to flee,” said Gen. Oleksiy Gromov of the Ukrainian General Staff, adding that it was impossible for him to “confirm or deny” whether they did in fact withdraw. Moscow had already ordered the evacuation of civilians and the occupation administration from Kherson on October 18 to the left bank of the Dnieper, a natural barrier where Moscow could better consolidate its lines.
The ISW military analysis center considered it unlikely that the announcement of the Russian withdrawal was a diversionary maneuver. He said he had seen “a steady withdrawal of Russian forces, military and economic resources and elements of the occupation” on the eastern bank of the Dnieper.
The withdrawal of Russian troops is a setback for Vladimir Putin, who announced the annexation of the Kherson region in September, along with three other Ukrainian territories, and had promised that these lands would be Russian “forever”. It will be difficult for Moscow to continue its offensive towards the Ukrainian city of Mikolaiv and the strategic Black Sea port of Odessa. In addition, Russia could lose control of the Kakhovka dam, which is strategic for supplying water to the annexed Crimean peninsula, bordering the Kherson region. From the city of Kherson, Ukrainian troops could even attack Crimea with artillery.
Following Russia’s withdrawal from northeastern Ukraine, this second withdrawal in two months may weigh on the morale of the troops, at a time when Moscow is deploying hundreds of thousands of reservists, mostly civilians with no military experience. Russian news channels made little mention of the pullout, as they often do when there is bad news. Unlike previous Russian setbacks, top regime officials generally approved of the withdrawal, refraining from criticizing the military hierarchy.
The appointment in October of General Serguei Surovikin as head of the Russian forces in Ukraine seems to have satisfied the most radical. This military man has a reputation for being ruthless and competent, capable of making difficult decisions. The deployment of Russian troops behind the Dnieper River would make it more difficult for Ukraine to continue its offensive in the region. Moscow, which has suffered heavy losses, wants to give itself time to equip and train the tens of thousands of mobilized soldiers, perhaps with a view to a new offensive after the winter.