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Risks of Relegation: How Investment Affects Probability of Going Down

"If your investment does not reach the average of the six lowest-rated teams, the probability of going down skyrockets."

Espanyol Returns to the First Division: An Exclusive Interview with Juan Pablo de Miguel

MADRID, SPAIN – The 2023-2024 season was marked by surprises and drama, and Espanyol’s return to the First Division is one of the most notable stories of the campaign. In an exclusive interview with [Publication], Juan Pablo de Miguel, CEO of Economic Support Sport, shares the details of the club’s remarkable journey and what lies ahead.

Data Analysis and Economic Assessment

"We are dedicated to data analysis, of the performance of footballers in sports to assign each of them an objective and numerical value," explains De Miguel. "Based on this, we advise clubs to try to make correct decisions and help project what can happen, the performance that each of the footballers can give and the level that the squad can give."

The Summer Market and Capital Gain

In the summer, De Miguel’s team helped Espanyol with some operations. Two players who occupied the same position were on the market, and the data indicated that one of them was worth 2.5 million euros, while the other was worth 20 million euros in the English market. In addition to obtaining a capital gain of almost 18 million euros, Espanyol was able to sell above the average price of the players and gain 18 million more.

The Winter Market and Budget Constraints

In the winter, the data continued to show that Espanyol was the best squad, but the budget had fallen to eighth in the division. Despite not being able to make any signings, De Miguel’s team worked well, and the club was able to hold its own.

The Squad’s Performance and Value

"This season, the value of the squad has increased by 30 million euros," says De Miguel. "This is a very positive fact for a club with financial difficulties and in an atypical season. A lot of work was done with the players to explain the situation to them. We had regular meetings with them. We spoke from the objectivity of the data and the numbers. That also gave them enough calm to stay focused on the objective."

The Playoffs and Favourites

In the playoffs, the data indicated that if things went as normal, Espanyol’s squad was superior to the rest of its rivals and should achieve its objective, and so it was.

Primera Division and Budgets

Analysing the 6 or 7 teams at the bottom of the table and the investment they make in improving their squads, De Miguel found interesting data. "If your squad is among the six least valued, you are already at risk of being relegated, but if your investment figure does not reach the average expenditure of those six teams, the probability soars, since two of the three that invest the least in that group, go down."

Current Figures and Uncertainty

Now, until things move, it is difficult to make calculations, because there are still many changes to be made in the teams. When these operations are undertaken and we have the final figures from ‘Fair Play’, we will have the data to make a realistic projection. Right now, it is all speculation.

The Player Who Generated the Most Value

The player who has performed better than expected and created the most value this season has been Cabrera, according to De Miguel. He is the one who has created the most value for Espanyol. Then there are young players who have also taken off, such as Joan García or Omar El Hilali, who is also part of the success.

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