The suspense continues in the United States. Two days after midterms much tighter than expected, we still do not know which side Congress will lean on. Republicans remain in a favorable tie in the House while Democrats are better positioned to retain the Senate. It will probably be necessary to wait a few days or even several weeks to be fixed, especially if the votes had to be recounted in certain constituencies.
The Senate: The favorite Democrats, Nevada and Arizona are long overdue
In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was around 15,000 votes behind Republican Adam Laxalt on Thursday, out of 90% of the vote counted. But there are still a little over 100,000 postal ballots from urban areas (Las Vegas and Reno) to be counted. She needs to win what is left by 55%, and she was around 60-65% in the last batches, with many young people who mobilized at the last moment. If this continues, she should logically win. We should see more clearly by Friday evening, or even Monday if it was very tight, because Nevada accepts postal ballots received until Saturday, if they were mailed on Tuesday (the day of the election) at the later.
In Arizona, it’s the other way around. Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly has a lead of just under 100,000 votes. There are still nearly a quarter of the ballots to be counted, a mixture of postal voting and ballots deposited in boxes on D-Day. Republican Blake Masters is back but he must make up nearly five points behind.
If the Democrats win these two polls, they will have a guaranteed majority of 50 seats (with Kamala Harris). The second round in Georgia, on December 6, would then count for butter. If the Republicans manage to snatch Nevada or Arizona, on the other hand, the ballot in Georgia would be decisive.
The Chamber: Republicans on course to obtain a tiny majority
The Republicans are very close to the goal. On Thursday, they were leading 211 to 198, with a majority at 218, and another 26 undecided votes. In the latter, if the leading party wins, this would give a majority of 4 seats to the Republicans (221 to 214). Democrats therefore need to turn the tide in at least four elections.
It’s difficult but not impossible, with a dozen contested constituencies, mostly in California and Arizona. In Colorado, Trumpist Lauren Boebert has only a few dozen votes in advance, and we will probably have to count again. Organizers told California they had 30 days to count and verify everything. Patience, therefore.