The Bitcoin price started 2024 strong, but suddenly took a hard hit yesterday. Despite inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes and geopolitical tensions, the global economy miraculously survived 2023. However, there are some developments that could still cause a stir in 2024.
What dangers threaten the Bitcoin price in 2024?
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Will the American consumer capitulate?
After a fantastic 2023, the American economy is expected to return to earth in the next 12 months. The big question is whether this will take the form of a recession or a soft landing. The answer to this question likely depends on the US labor market.
So far it has managed to weather the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, but this year could be the tipping point. A rise in unemployment would hurt consumption in the U.S. economy and potentially trigger a recession. The weekly Initial applications for unemployment assistance are an important indicator of this development.
Will China get the real estate crisis under control?
The next big question for 2023 is whether China can get to grips with the housing crisis that began after President Xi Jinping cracked down on speculation in the real estate sector. Now in the Chinese market there are a lot of apartments that were bought but never built.
It is estimated that 20 million units have been sold, while in many cases construction has not even begun. People are slowly becoming impatient and this poses a threat to social stability in China. Will we see the peak of the real estate crisis in China in 2024?
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Europe's Achilles heel
Then it is finally time for our own Eurozone, in which Germany currently seems to be a weak brother. The German economy was the worst-performing major economy in the world in 2023. High energy prices and a strict monetary policy coupled with weakened global demand for export products in Germany are causing problems.
In this situation, it is interesting to keep an eye on the following graphic. This shows how confident the German economy is of positive development.
All in all, there is a lot on the agenda that could weaken the global economy. Now the question arises to what extent Bitcoin can cope with this. If we get the spot Bitcoin ETF and a new bull market breaks out, this positive force could be so great that we feel little pain from an eventual recession.
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