Shift in the European Union’s Geographical Center of Gravity
The European Union’s geographical center of gravity has undergone significant changes since its founding. Initially, the center was located in Kleimaischeid, a French town, when the community consisted of only six countries. However, with successive enlargements, the center shifted to Gelnhausen, Germany, in 2007, and later to Gadheim, northern Bavaria, after the UK’s departure and Croatia’s entry in 2013.
Impact of Enlargements on the EU’s Political Landscape
The upcoming enlargements to the Western Balkans may cause a further shift in the EU’s center of gravity. This change is not only geographical but also reflects the evolving political landscape of the EU. The Franco-German axis, once a dominant force, is currently experiencing a decline, while Poland is emerging as a key player, particularly with the return of pro-European Donald Tusk to power.
Poland’s Growing Influence
Poland’s increasing influence is evident in its significant defense spending, which exceeds that of other NATO allies, including Estonia and the US. As a key supporter of Ukraine, Poland has become a crucial logistics hub for military equipment transfers and a haven for Ukrainian refugees. This position is likely to propel Poland to the forefront of the European defense debate during Ursula von der Leyen’s second term as head of the community Executive.
The Rise of Poland as a Leader in European Defense
Poland’s presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2025, coinciding with the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, may mark a significant turning point in European politics. As a strong advocate for European strategic sovereignty, Poland is poised to become a key player in shaping the EU’s defense policies and counterbalancing the influence of other global powers.
A New Era for European Politics
The upcoming years will be marked by significant changes in the European political landscape. With France experiencing internal weakness and Germany facing economic instability, Poland is well-positioned to fill the void and emerge as a leader in European defense. As the EU navigates these changes, it is likely that Poland will play a crucial role in shaping the continent’s future.