Some economists and government officials show a excess of optimism about the forecasts that are made of our economy for the 2023.
I do not doubt the projections of the IMF and the World Bank, but daily new geopolitical events changing economic scenarios.
The truth is that the recessionary winds they will hit us, although probably with less force than in other countries. By 2023, the eurozone growthAccording to the IMF it will be 0.5%, with Italy and Germany falling negative.
That of the United States is estimated at 1%, China will be between 3% and 3.5% and in the United Kingdom there is real chaos. This dramatic scenario can change if there is a solution to the war in Ukraine. But another war front opens: the commercial one.
The ceiling (60 dollars a barrel) set at the russian oil, it will have serious consequences for the market, even if the current price is around US$73 a barrel, while the BRICS join forces, led by China, to break the dominance of the dollar.
The good news at the end of the year is that inflation in the United States dropped in November to 7.1%, and the FED softened the rate increases (0.50% placing it at 4.5%). The BCRD should increase its rates to 8.75% or 9%.
Another encouraging fact is that the rate of Unemployment remains at a very low 3.7%. Despite these good data from our main trading partner, the risks of global recession remain and at some point in the United States itself, the effect of interest rate hikes will take its toll on the economy.
In our case, we will grow slower in 2023, consumption and investment will contract due to high interest rates, jobs will be lost and inflation will exceed the target range (4%), because prices are subject to the use of gas and oil as weapons of war.
Let’s not be pessimistic, but let’s not think that we are armored. There are big challenges for 2023: salary adjustment, maintain the deficit (3%), interest on new debt, reform Social Security and stability of the exchange rate.
Foreign investment would be our lifeline if we strengthen legal certainty, the business climate, transparency and citizen security, trusting that, in the United States, the recession will be less lethal, causing the least possible damage to remittances and tourism .