Panic in Europe about the scenario of a possible Russian victory if Ukraine does not receive more weapons

Concerns about the deterioration of the combat effectiveness of Ukraine They are beginning to sound loud in Europe and the United States. The shortage of ammunition and artillery, largely due to the cessation of deliveries from the USA, threatens the defense against Russian troops, which have escalated the conflict into a conflict a trench warfare with massive use of drones, which leaves neither party with much chance of surprising the other at the front. Even the head of the Ukrainian secret service, Kyrilov BudanovHe acknowledged “some Russian advances” this week. At the same time, reports are emerging that Moscow is preparing a spring counteroffensive as its forces step up attacks on key front lines. Are we facing the beginning of the end for Ukraine as a sovereign and independent country? Is it just another chapter in a long war?

For now that is President Emmanuel Macron has called on Europe to take responsibility for its own defense and argued that it cannot outsource its security to “great powers” ​​like the United States. This comment appears to be a warning of what could happen if Donald Trump wins the US presidency again in November and distances himself from the European Union and weakens NATO, as he has suggested in the past. During a state visit to Sweden, the French president called on his allies to do so Increase support for Ukraine “at any cost.” and regardless of what the United States does. Other European leaders and governments, such as: Ola Scholz, The German Chancellor has called on her partners to “double their efforts” and “urgently” send more weapons to Kiev, including artillery, drones, tanks and air defense systems. As Ukrainian presidential adviser Mijailo Podoliak put it: “Europeans can choose between two fundamental choices.”

Experts also warn about what will happen if this situation is not reversed. “Right now the United States is in the process of proving its will to fail, much to the delight of the United States.” Russian neo-fascist regime “This has turned the fields and houses of Ukraine into a giant slaughterhouse,” he writes Tom Nichols in The Atlantic.. “President Joe Biden, most NATO members and many other nations are aware of the crisis, but the world could only be comfortable with a Russian victory (and an eventual escalation of Russian aggression against) because of the current drama and absurd disputes within the Republican Party Europe). “

Stephen Bryen The former deputy undersecretary of defense for policy in the United States and currently a researcher at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute has assured that “European and American allies understand that Kiev cannot resist Russian military pressure. For this reason.” Now Europe is in panic and Washington is looking for a new policy. “Europe believes that if Russia wins in Ukraine, which now seems likely, Europe will be threatened by Russia, for which it is not prepared,” the expert wrote in an article on Substack. Bryen is very critical of Europe’s role in this crisis: “Europe has little to fall back on, because its security depends to a large extent on the United States. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and perhaps long before, Europeans have focused on social spending and invested little in defense programs.”

As we approach entering the third year of the war, Moscow appears to have balanced the scales, says Gustav Gressel in an article for the think tank ECFR. “Russia has begun to innovate in military tactics to deploy its armed forces more effectively; “It also uses various recruiting tactics to fill its ranks and has shifted to a war economy to increase production of much-needed equipment.” Gressel assures that in 2023 there has been no concerted industrial defense effort to restore Ukraine to armored vehicles to supply combat vehicles. “Even ammunition production is way behind, especially in Europe: of the 2.3 million shells used by Ukraine in 2023, only 300,000 were European shells.”

There is one in Europe Great frustration over Hungary’s refusal to release 50 billion euros in collective aid to Ukraine. Josep Borrell, head of European diplomacy, said on Wednesday that just over half of the millions of artillery shells promised to Kiev will arrive in Ukraine before the deadline. Citing a diplomat as a source, the Bloomberg agency assures that Ukraine’s air defense will no longer be able to destroy as many Russian projectiles as in the past.

Ukraine receives a GLSDB bomb missile

Currently, Ukraine continues to receive some types of weapons, but this is because they are part of agreements already approved by the US Congress in the past. This is the case of the new Small diameter ground bomb known as GLSDB, which can reach a distance of 150 kilometers and destroy meter-thick steel or concrete walls. Ukraine will be the first country in the world to use the new long-range bomb in combat, as no other country has this weapon in its arsenal, not even the United States. The US military industry has adapted the GBU39 conventional aerial bomb with an attached missile that allows it to glide until it reaches its target and, like the missiles fired by HIMARS defense systems, can be guided by laser or GPS, giving it the Possibility to change trajectory mid-flight. The price of this rocket bomb, which the Pentagon will soon transfer to Kiev, is only 37,000 euros, which is significantly lower than the cost of the rockets fired by the Pentagon HIMARS (200,000 euros).

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