A quiet Sunday on the Pacific coast took a tense turn as Tropical Depression Ten-E, or DT10-E, began to brew. This weather system has settled in an unusual spot, hovering near the southern coast. Its stationary nature means one big problem: an increased risk of heavy, ongoing rainfall for the region. Experts predict it will become a tropical storm very soon.
The heavy rains from DT10-E could easily top 150 millimeters in some areas. That much water brings the real danger of widespread flooding and rivers bursting their banks. People across western Mexico are on alert, especially in states like Jalisco, Colima, Nayarit, Michoacán, Sinaloa, and Durango.
Tropical Depression Ten-E Takes Shape
The heart of DT10-E came to life in the Pacific Ocean on Sunday. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) reported this happened at 9:00 PM Central Mexico time. It was first pinpointed about 250 kilometers from Oaxaca and 265 kilometers from Guerrero. Since then, it has barely moved, staying put according to reports from the Comisión Nacional del Agua.
Both the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the SMN have recorded sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour. Gusts have reached speeds of 75 kilometers per hour. These speeds mean it’s officially classified as a depression, which is the very first stage of a tropical cyclone.
The biggest worry with Tropical Depression Ten-E staying still is how it concentrates its power. When a system doesn’t move, the clouds linked to it keep dumping rain on the same spots for a longer time. This makes the risk of serious flooding much, much higher.
Emergency Measures and Watch Zones
This weather system will get a proper name once it grows into a full tropical storm. Early predictions show it moving slowly towards the northeast. It could hug the coasts of Oaxaca and Chiapas, possibly making landfall by next Wednesday. The area between Arriaga and Pijijiapan is the most likely spot.
The SMN and NHC have already set up a special watch zone. This area covers the coast from Punta Maldonado, Guerrero, all the way to Salina Cruz, Oaxaca. Within 48 hours, conditions here might be right for a tropical storm. Leaders in the most vulnerable states are acting fast to reduce any potential harm.
For example, Evelyn Salgado Pineda, the Governor of Guerrero, quickly activated emergency protocols for all coastal towns. She ordered more prevention work across the state’s eight regions. Civil protection committees have already started continuous meetings to prepare for the possible emergency. Meanwhile, the government of Oaxaca has issued a low-risk alert for its state.
What the Forecasts Say
The team at Meteored, a global weather app, shared their analysis. They believe the tropical depression, even if it becomes a storm, will not hit land. Instead, they expect it to drift away from the coast. They don’t think it will cause a major impact on Mexican coastal states. Because of this, they see no need for a high-level warning.
The Global Forecast System (GFS), a model used worldwide for weather analysis, offers a similar view. Their projections suggest that Tropical Depression Ten-E might stay disorganized. Its growth could be very slow. The GFS indicates it would likely weaken and disappear before even getting close to Baja California Sur. This also supports the idea that the alert level shouldn’t be too high.