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Next Thursday will be crucial for the Bitcoin price

Typically, the Christmas and New Year week is a quiet time for financial markets, but next week could bring fireworks for the Bitcoin price. If we look at the economic calendar, next Thursday seems particularly crucial for Bitcoin.

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Important period for the Bitcoin price

Last week was special because the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator was much lower than expected.

Then of course I’m talking about core PCE inflation (chart above), which came in at 3.2% versus expectations of 3.3%.

If we extend the development of this inflation indicator over the last 6 months to 12 months (on an annual basis), the Core PCE index will be even below 2.0% and that is the target of the US Federal Reserve.

In this respect, it is not surprising that the markets are reacting very optimistically. For example, about 1.50% interest rate cuts are currently expected in 2024, while the Federal Reserve only three (0.75%).

Source: CME Group

The first rate cut appears to be scheduled for March 2024 and that is positive for the Bitcoin price. Why? Because we may get the spot Bitcoin ETFs in America as early as January and the halving will follow in April.

Next Thursday will be crucial for the Bitcoin price

Now it seems to be quiet on the market in the coming days, but a lot can still happen.

On Thursday we will receive new data on unemployment in the USA. If they suddenly turn out to be significantly higher than expected, this could boost expectations of interest rate cuts EVEN more.

The downside is that a recession is also possible if unemployment becomes too high. In this respect, the Bitcoin price has an exciting time ahead.

Of course, what we are most looking forward to is the possible approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Federal Reserve.

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