Asteroids occasionally pass close to Earth, triggering alarms among scientists who closely monitor the sky. These rocky bodies vary in size and trajectory, and some may pose a real risk if they get too close. Astronomers have recently identified a space rock, possibly as large as a football field, which has a probability of crashing into Earth in 2032.
The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, was sighted on December 27, 2024, and experts point out that there is a small possibility it will impact Earth on December 22, 2032. As telescopes around the world gather more data on the asteroid, the impact probabilities will likely change. Currently, the asteroid is believed to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter and is moving away from Earth at 17.32 km/s.
Given its size, if the asteroid were to settle on Earth, it could leave a crater and potentially cause a tsunami if it impacts the ocean. However, it would not be an omen of extinction. The asteroid has been classified with a 3 on the Torino scale, which evaluates the destructive potential of near-Earth objects. This scale ranges from 0 to 10, with 0 indicating no hazard and 10 indicating a certain collision with global consequences.
To evaluate the asteroid’s destructive potential, astronomers use the Torino scale. Currently, the asteroid is classified as a 3, which means it deserves additional attention from researchers and the public. Astronomers have already practiced diverting a potentially hazardous asteroid through NASA’s Dart mission in 2022. The mission crashed into a small asteroid, pushing it into a different orbit around a larger asteroid. This test showed that the method works, and it could be used to divert the 2024 YR4 asteroid if necessary.
Experts have calculated the collision probability of the asteroid to be approximately 1.2%, which is rare and significant for asteroid observers. The independent calculations of NASA’s Center for Studies of Objects Near the Earth coincide with these findings, confirming the current level of danger. Astronomers will continue to monitor the asteroid using more powerful telescopes to collect enough measurements to refine orbital calculations and alleviate public concerns. With eight years until the potential impact, there is sufficient time to organize a diversion mission if necessary.