Mozambique’s Triple Threat: War, Protests, and Cyclone Chido
Mozambique, a country in Southern Africa, is facing a multitude of crises that threaten to push it towards a humanitarian disaster. The ongoing war in Cabo Delgado, protests against the government, and the recent passage of Cyclone Chido have created a perfect storm that could have devastating consequences for the country and its people.
The War in Cabo Delgado: A Conflict Over Resources and Ideology
The conflict in Cabo Delgado began in 2017, shortly after the discovery of large reserves of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the region. Islamic fundamentalist groups linked to Al Shabaab, a Somali-based terrorist organization, began a social and political process that led to violent actions two years later. The conflict revolves around the management of resources and profound economic deficiencies that affect the local population, making it easy for young people to be recruited by extremist groups.
Despite the presence of international missions, including South African mercenaries, Wagner Group operatives, and troops from various Southern African countries, the conflict has caused significant wear and tear at the local level. Around 830,000 internally displaced people have had to flee their homes, and many roads are closed, making it difficult to transport people and products. The Mozambican government’s inability to defend its population has raised questions about its capabilities and led to complaints of corrupt military and hidden interests.
The Post-Election Protests: A Challenge to FRELIMO’s Authority
Mozambique’s presidential elections in October were marked by low participation and FRELIMO’s umpteenth victory. However, the opposition, led by Venancio Mondlane, founder of the Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique (PODEMOS), has rejected the results, leading to protests that have been harshly repressed. The protests have resulted in over 134 deaths, including at least three police officers, and have led to the arrest warrant of Mondlane, who has fled to South Africa.
The government has accused the protesters of being coordinated by armed groups operating in Cabo Delgado, citing the recent escape of 1,500 prisoners, including at least thirty terrorists. The protests have weakened FRELIMO’s authority and raised questions about its legitimacy.
Cyclone Chido: A Natural Disaster with Devastating Consequences
The passage of Cyclone Chido has devastated the north of the country, destroying 39,000 homes and affecting an estimated 329,000 people. The cyclone has also damaged 50 health centers, drinking water sources, and electricity systems, making it difficult for humanitarian organizations to provide assistance. The government’s inability to address the crisis has further weakened its authority and raised concerns about its ability to respond to future natural disasters.
The cyclone has also added to the economic and environmental consequences of the war in Cabo Delgado and the protests, creating a perfect storm that could have devastating consequences for Mozambique. The reconstruction of the areas affected by Cyclone Chido could be a test for the new government, led by Daniel Chapo, who will be sworn in soon. If passed, it could allow him to gain the legitimacy that his party has lost in recent decades.