The leaders of the military junta that governs Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed this Saturday an agreement creating the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), whose main task is military cooperation. Was Colonel Assimi Goitafrom Mali, who announced on his Twitter account that he had “signed with the heads of state of Burkina Faso and Niger the Liptako-Gourma Treaty establishing the Alliance of Sahel States, with the aim of establishing a collective defense and defense architecture “to create mutual aid for the benefit of our citizens.”
The alliance is somewhat reminiscent of the cooperation between states known as the G-5 Sahel (comprising Mali, Niger, Chad, Mauritania and Burkina Faso), which was funded by the European Union in 2014 with the aim of combining forces to combat jihadism in the region. The decline of the G-5 Sahel began after Mali announced its withdrawal in May 2022; a continued decline after successive coups that have rocked the Sahel over the past two years and distanced members from Europe, while military partnerships with Russia are the new trend. The AES is a final assault on the G-5 Sahel, which is unlikely to recover from the support of three member states and it is doubtful whether it will have any clear benefit from now on.
A useful tool against the Tuareg
Various media have confirmed the new contract This is a cooperation agreement to counter possible military aggression from ECOWAS or even France.. An increasingly remote possibility, but one that has threatened the coup plotters in West Africa since the regional organization threatened armed intervention in August this year. However, this alliance signed in Bamako (Mali) offers a series of consequences that go beyond a mere possibility. In Article Number 5 you can read:
“The Parties will also work to prevent, manage and resolve any armed insurrection or other threat affecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of each member State of the Alliance, by promoting peace and diplomacy and, where appropriate, the use of force. “Encounter situations in which peace and stability are disturbed.”
The key word is rebellion. Because the AES implies that the three nations will support each other, not only in the event of an ECOWAS intervention in Niger and to cooperate in the war against terrorism: also is proving to be a useful wild card for Mali in its new war against the Azawad separatists. It is no coincidence that the treaty was signed in Mali, and it is no coincidence that this is the case just a month ago that Malian forces launched an offensive in the north of the country to try to decapitate the chimera of Azawad’s nationalism. Bombings on Tuareg targets have already been recorded, as have ground clashes between the FAMA and elements integrated into the Azawad Movement Cooperation. Assimi Goita has embarked on a new war adventure in which the help of Niger and Burkina Faso could be seen as crucial.
As far as the fight against terrorism is concerned, The aim of the new alliance is to focus on the area known as the “Three Borders”., a jihadist hornet’s nest in which half a dozen armed groups converge and which covers the border areas of the three signatory states to the treaty. This creates a kind of imaginary rectangle that stretches from Timbuktu to Kidal in the north, from Kidal to the southern border of Niger in the east and from Timbuktu to the southern border of Burkina Faso in the west. The operational area includes the capitals of Burkina Faso (Ouagadougou) and Niger (Niamey) as well as the important cities of Gao, Dori and Dey Keyna. This is where the greatest similarities with the G-5 Sahel can be seen.
With this, the military appears to have killed three birds with one stone, guaranteeing mutual protection in the event of internal uprisings, including possible new coups that overthrow them from power; Agreement on a new alliance in the fight against jihadism; and to show the world their unity in the face of possible military intervention by ECOWAS. This is stated in Article 6: “Any attack on the sovereignty and integrity of one or more parties is viewed as aggression against the other parties and leads to a duty of assistance and assistance.”.
An empty contract
But not all that glitters is gold. With their new alliance, the putschists in the Sahel region, who sometimes engage in charlatanism, convey an image of strength and unity that appeases their citizens, but is nevertheless seen from outside as a sign of their weakness. After the United Nations and France were expelled from their respective nations, the coup plotters were left alone. Its only ally in the military sphere is Russia and the mercenaries of the Wagner Group, whose results on the ground have so far led to an increase in terrorist attacks, a spread of jihadist groups in the region and an increase in violence against the civilian population by the security forces of Mali and Burkina Faso. Their only hope is donations from third countries such as China, which recently delivered military transport vehicles, or Germany, which this week delivered military equipment worth 3,051 euros to Burkina Faso.
In the case of three nations whose economies are located at the bottom of the world, which have barely any defense budgets and are cornered by jihad on several fronts, the new alliance is air, soup without salt. While Nigeria has a force of 160,000 active soldiers, the Nigerian Army does not even reach 11,000 soldiers. While the French army is the ninth best in the world according to Global Firepower’s annual rankings, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are ranked 110th, 119th and 121st. And there is no need to remember that it was in 2012 , when the Azawad uprising reached untenable proportions for the Malian army and forced the Bamako government to request urgent aid from France. Where would Niger even find a train to send to Mali if it had to face the jihadists swarming the country’s west and southeast?
It is significant that West Africa’s fourth coup leader, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya (Guinea Conakry), did not want to join the alliance. Although the Guinean nation is not one of the Sahelian states, its ties to the other military dictators would have even expected a symbolic signature. Mamady Doumbouya looks further than her contemporaries and showed this when she condemned possible military intervention in Niger but denied that she would provide military assistance if necessary.
The leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger formed a new alliance this week to reinforce their heroic and seemingly pan-African stance in the eyes of their citizens. In the eyes of the rest of the world and future history, their states are becoming a little smaller every day under the boot of the jihadists.