Lula recovers ground and would comfortably win over Bolsonaro, according to a poll

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recovered the lost advantage against current President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the October elections in Brazil, according to a poll published this Thursday, which again flirts with the idea of ​​a victory for the leftist leader in the first round. .

Lula, 76, leads the race for the Planalto Palace with 48% of voting intentions, followed by the far-right president with 27%, according to a survey by the Datafolha consultancy published by the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper.

Although it is not directly comparable to the previous poll in March, in which scenarios with other candidates were projected, Lula extended his advantage to 21 points in the first round of October 2 against Bolsonaro.

In March, the difference was 17 points, after Bolsonaro closed the gap in relation to the December poll, where Lula also appeared with 48% voting intention.

This Thursday’s poll included a scenario with the valid votes -without the blanks or the null ones- and revealed that the former president, in that case, would win in the first round, with 54% of the votes compared to 30% for Bolsonaro.

Although Lula leads the polls comfortably, especially since he was released from prison after being convicted of corruption, his campaign avoids falling into triumphalism.

In a possible ballot, on October 30, the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) would take 25 points (58% to 33%) from Bolsonaro, three more than in the previous poll.

This new Datafolha poll consolidates the polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula. It is the first poll without the former judge of the Lava Jato operation, Sergio Moro, or the former governor of Sao Paulo, Joao Doria, two candidates to lead the so-called "third way" who ended up leaving.

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Senator Simone Tebet, candidate to take over the witness of this alternative to the Lula-Bolsonaro duel, appears in fifth place, with 2% voting intention, tied with the centrist André Janones.

In third place is the center-leftist Ciro Gomes, with 7%, compared to 6% in the previous survey.

For Creomar de Souza, an analyst at the consulting firm Dharma, the survey shows that "lack of improvement in the economy" may be creating "a tendency in favor of Lula"he explained to AFP.

Also, "Bolsonaro suffers more from his rejection and has more difficulty speaking outside the bubble (of supporters) than Lula"he added.

Datafolha interviewed 2,556 people between May 25 and 26 in 181 Brazilian cities, and the results include a margin of error of +/- 2 points.

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