Regional Instability and the Resurgence of Daesh
The collapse of the Syrian regime has raised concerns about the potential resurgence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as Daesh. Despite its defeat in 2019, the organization has managed to survive in Syrian and Iraqi territory, waging a war of its own. In recent years, Daesh has experienced a gradual recovery, with several hundred attacks attributed to it in Syria alone.
A New Rebel Authority and the Expansion of Daesh
The fall of the secular dictatorship of the Baath Party has led to the rise of a new rebel authority, an amalgam of jihadist and Islamist forces commanded by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), a paramilitary group born of Al Qaeda. The question remains whether this new authority will be able to stop the expansion of Daesh in the Syrian desert. According to Charles Lister, director of the Syria and counterterrorism programs at the Middle East Institute, “Assad’s forces, which were used to thwart Daesh’s will to expand, abandoned their positions in central Syria. Opposition fighters have tried to occupy part of that space, but their numbers are minimal, and their ability to coordinate a complex desert campaign against the Islamic State is limited at best.”
International Concerns and Military Action
Both the US and Russian authorities have expressed concerns about the potential resurgence of Daesh. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that the Islamic State “will try to take advantage” of the change in regime in Syria, while Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned of “the possibility of a resurgence of the Islamic State in Syria in the current transition process.” In response, the US and Israel have launched attacks against Islamic State targets in Syria, with the Biden Administration reporting the elimination of at least twelve terrorists from the organization in one bombing.
The Kurdish Factor and the Risk of Prison Breaks
The Kurdish Democratic Forces, an amalgam of organizations led by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), have raised concerns about the attacks suffered at the hands of rebel forces allied with Turkey, warning of the danger of facilitating the expansion of Daesh. Another risk is that the jihadists take control of the existing prisons in Kurdish territory, where thousands of terrorists are currently being held. US Central Command head Michael Erik Kurilla has warned that the Islamic State aspires to the release of more than 8,000 of its men locked up in Syrian prisons.
Global Implications and the Appeal of Daesh
Despite its regional focus, Daesh continues to have an appeal for lone wolves in Europe and the United States. The organization’s Central Asian affiliate claimed the lives of at least 150 people in an attack in a Moscow concert hall last year, and there are concerns about an increase in activity on European and American soil. The fear of an increase in activity on European and American soil is an issue that worries Western foreign ministries.