Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko assured on Tuesday that he wanted to prevent the migration crisis on the border with Poland, which he is accused of having orchestrated, from degenerating into “fiery confrontation” with the European Union. A setback that says a lot about the firmness of the 27 in responding to this crisis, and the strength of the threats that the Union has been able to put in place.
All of this was far from over. The 27 initially seemed to be playing their classic score, namely responding in dispersed order, when Poland refused Brussels’ offer to send Frontex guards to its borders, preferring to build a wall. But after this usual trial and error, the response suddenly became unanimous and coordinated, as the 27 seldom had been able to do.
To provoke his luck and his victory
“The European Union has achieved a geopolitical victory that should not be underestimated. Nevertheless, one can wonder what would have happened if Lukashenko had not retreated, or if Russia had better supported Minsk ”, estimates Joséphine Staron, doctor of political philosophy at the Sorbonne and director of studies and international relations. of think tank Synopia.
Of course, Europe had favorable conditions for its victory, but “it is a chance that it was able to provoke by its frank and organized response”, notes the doctor. Above all, it is an affirmation of more than one new unity in terms of foreign policy, already seen this year with the crisis in Afghanistan, that of the submarines or of Brexit.
Realpolitik is finally coming to Brussels
“This year the Europeans have learned the hard way to deal with foreign policy. The European Union was not known to bring political will to the international level, ”notes Joséphine Staron, contenting herself more with being a purely economic and commercial power until then. “Today, European countries see clearly that they can no longer ignore a common foreign policy,” said the doctor.
For Sylvie Matelly, deputy director at Iris (Institute of International and Strategic Relations) and specialist in Europe, the beginning of awareness dates back to 2016. Between the election of a Donald Trump very hostile even towards his allies, Brexit and the emergence of China, “the European Union understands that it will be necessary to choose a camp, and that the best camp is itself”. This increasingly united union also works in areas other than geopolitics: the European recovery plan in the face of the coronavirus crisis shows here too, according to the deputy director, how Europe knows how to do better and better. common.
Another visible effect of this geopolitical maturation, the speed to unite. “A few days ago, Poland and Brussels were at odds. In less than a week, a common response emerged. Two to three years ago, it would have taken several weeks, if not months, ”recalls Sylvie Matelly. A speed that she attributes to the harshness of the other international powers: “Europe has understood that faced with wolves, rapid, firm and strong responses are needed”, supports the deputy director. And inevitably, given the economic, demographic, commercial and even military power of Europe, the common responses of the 27 have enough to win geopolitical battles.
A solid Europe on the supports
This is a real internal revolution for the Union, facilitated by the departure of the British, explains Sylvie Matelly: “Of the 28, they were the most attached to a union solely commercial and economic. Now that they are no longer there, Europe can much more easily play on the foreign and defense policy card ”.
If Brexit has played a role, it is above all the many crises that the European Union has gone through which have been able to strengthen it and unite it as never before in its history of mega-power, concludes Joséphine Staron: “The European Union is only moving forward. by crises. It is a dangerous game, as it can either break the common edifice or make it grow. Where Europe has shown itself to be very solid is that it has never broken down, showing everyone’s willingness to maintain this union at all costs. “