WASHINGTON — Two weeks into Operation Epic Fury, military analysts and defense officials indicate that Iran is increasingly dictating the operational pace of the conflict, forcing the United States and its allies into a protracted regional war of attrition.
Despite President Donald Trump recently stating the military campaign was nearing completion, the strategic reality on the ground reflects a different trajectory. Iranian forces, operating under the hardline leadership of Mojtaba Khamenei following the collapse of Oman-led nuclear negotiations, have deployed a pre-planned deterrence strategy utilizing sleeper cells and restricting access through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, as a joint U.S.-Israeli effort aimed at degrading Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and leadership capabilities, has resulted in significant casualties and global economic disruption. The Pentagon confirmed that U.S. forces have struck over 5,000 targets within Iranian territory. Initial assessments reported over 1,300 people killed in Iran during the opening wave of attacks.
As the U.S. intensifies strikes across the region, American forces are absorbing steady losses. Defense officials reported Friday that 140 U.S. service members have been injured and eight have been killed since the operation commenced.
The strategic paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered immediate macroeconomic shockwaves. Global oil prices temporarily spiked to a multi-year high of $120 per barrel earlier this week before settling near $90 on Friday, March 13. In direct response to the energy disruption, the Australian government announced Friday it is releasing six days’ worth of its emergency oil stockpile to stabilize domestic supply chains.
The economic fallout is materializing in domestic U.S. markets. The University of Michigan reported a sharp decline in U.S. consumer sentiment on Friday, explicitly linking the drop to inflation risks generated by the ongoing Middle East conflict and the subsequent volatility in global energy sectors.