In Brazil, Lula gave 53% winner against Bolsonaro, according to a poll

Tight all the way. Lula would win the second round of the presidential election in Brazil by a short margin, with 53% of the votes against 47% for outgoing far-right head of state Jair Bolsonaro on October 30, according to a Datafolha * poll published on Friday. These figures are stable compared to the survey published last Friday by the benchmark institute.

The second round promises to be hotly contested in this extremely polarized election, and the two candidates have striven to rally political support and try to convince the undecided by pursuing an intense campaign throughout Brazil.

The surprise of the first round

The various polling institutes have been widely criticized for not having anticipated the high score of the incumbent president, to which they attributed a maximum of 37%, in the first round on October 2. Thus, the Datafolha poll published on the eve of the first round granted 50% of the votes cast (excluding null and white) to the former left-wing president, against only 36% to Jair Bolsonaro.

In the end, Lula came first in the first round with 48% of the vote, ahead of Bolsonaro, at 43%. “We have defeated the lies” of the polls, the far-right president had declared.

Accusations of “criminal practices”

Polling institutes were again at the center of a dispute on Friday after the decision of the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to suspend a police investigation demanded by the government of Jair Bolsonaro, who accuses them of manipulation. The federal police had opened an investigation Thursday at the request of the Ministry of Justice into possible “criminal practices” in the dissemination of opinion polls, local media reported.

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Meanwhile, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense, a body that monitors free market competition, has started its own investigation into whether the pollsters had tried to “manipulate” the elections.

A desire to promote the outgoing?

The president of the TSE, Alexandre de Moraes, suspended the two investigations on Friday, saying that their opening “usurps” the functions of electoral justice and is akin to a desire to favor the candidacy of the outgoing president.

Jair Bolsonaro criticized the position of this same Alexandre de Moraes on Friday. “The pollsters will continue to lie and with these lies, how many votes will pass to the other side? People usually vote for whoever wins,” he said in an interview on YouTube soccer channels.

For Luciana Chong, the director of Datafolha, the polls “do not anticipate the results”, and she attributed this difference to a last-minute postponement by undecided voters on the Bolsonaro vote.

* This survey carried out among 2,898 people on October 13 and 14 in 180 Brazilian cities, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points.

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