Alberto Alemanno, Professor of European Union Law at HEC University in Paris, believes that European leaders did not learn the lesson of geopolitics during Donald Trump’s presidency (2016-2020) and that the Old Continent is therefore still not an embryo of which the European defense system could be. In a conversation with LA RAZÓN, Alemanno claims that if the tycoon reaches the White House again, The United States will continue on the path of isolation which Obama started, and Biden has continued to focus on trade wars with China.
What have EU leaders learned about transatlantic relations from Donald Trump’s presidency?
Trump’s arrival took Europe by surprise and European leaders were slow to react. It was traumatic when Trump declared that Europe must make a living in defense and security and threatened to leave NATO because Europe was not providing enough money. European leaders have not learned much from the Trump presidency because we still do not have a common defense system. The war in Ukraine has indeed given a stronger boost to Europe, which will be better prepared for a second Trump presidency.
What could happen to NATO if Trump wins and European countries fail to make the required defense investments of 2% of GDP?
There is a risk that NATO will be marginalized in a second Trump presidency, which would open up new scenarios because there would be a weak NATO that would not serve the Europeans. In this scenario, a common defense mechanism would have to be created, which is still in its infancy today. There is great pressure and expectations for the EU to create this collective defense as proposed in the 1950s and once blocked by the French.
Which countries are most hesitant to push forward with a common European defense policy?
The further east one goes in Europe, the more sensitive the need for better collective defense becomes, as countries like the Baltics and Poland feel more threatened by Russia. However, in Spain, France or Italy this fear is not perceived.
Does Washington’s political elite think similarly to Trump about what the US’s relationship with the EU should look like?
The Republicans have changed their tune and are no longer the party they were before Trump took office. 70% of their cadre is on Trump’s side, there is no room for another candidate and that means the majority of Republicans think like him. Therefore, they do not believe that the United States needs to play a role as a guardian of Europe and are more in favor of entering into autarky and focusing on trade wars with China, thereby reducing the role of the United States in international politics. Obama has already taken the first steps in this policy and Biden has continued on the same path with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Will the US stop sending aid and weapons to Ukraine if Trump returns to the White House?
It is very likely that if Trump wins, he will send a very strong message of appeasement. He never stopped saying that with him as president the war would have already ended. There is dissatisfaction with Ukraine in the United States, and the base of the Republican Party and Congress are united, which is why financial aid to Ukraine is currently blocked. The problem of Ukraine will be regionalized and fall on Europe. If Trump is president, he will try Zelensky accepts a reduction in territory at the expense of Russia, which would keep not only Crimea but also part of eastern Ukraine.
Don’t you think this isolationist position will prevent the US from being the hegemon of the world order?
The USA is no longer the hegemon of the world; it has lost credibility. The withdrawal from Afghanistan marked the beginning of a new foreign policy. U.S. non-intervention in Syria was a clear sign that the U.S. was no longer willing to be the gatekeeper. The order of the Second World War is no longer shared by most countries. This process will lead to a multipolar world with three or four powers positioned with the integrating countries of the Global South, and this will represent an opposition force to any hegemony. That means we have to open up global governance and reform the UN because the institutions behind it no longer reflect the balance of power.
What is the significance of these US elections in November 2024?
What happens in Europe will depend on the American elections. They will be the most important of our lives because these elections will have an impact on the world order and European domestic politics. Italian Prime Minister Meloni was very pro-Ukrainian, but with a Trump presidency she would change her position by revealing her preferences towards Russia, and the same goes for Slovak Prime Minister Fico and Orban in Hungary, as well as part of public opinion Germany, which supports the AfD.