Hamas and Israel publicly disagree over key elements of a possible ceasefire. And yet the United States, as well as some Israeli analysts, believe they understand that there is still room for understanding behind the maximalist positions both may express for their domestic audiences.
Hamas proposed a ceasefire plan this week that would include a four-and-a-half-month ceasefire in which the hostages they kidnapped would be released in three phases, ending the war, in response to the plan proposed last week by Qatar and Egyptian mediators. Supported by the United States and Israel in Paris.
The Hamas proposal would also have entailed the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, leaving Gaza’s Islamist government intact, as well as the release of 1,500 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, a third of whom are serving life sentences.
The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, described the proposal as “delusional” and argued that capitulating to the terror group’s offer would spell disaster, and reiterated that only military pressure could ensure the release of the captured Israelis. However, he did not rule out new indirect negotiations. The President of the United States, for his part, Joe Bidensaid Hamas’s response was “somewhat exaggerated.”
The Israeli leadership has followed the same leitmotif since the beginning of the war: only military pressure could overthrow Hamas and free the hostages. But Israeli public opinion no longer embraces this idea as it did four months ago.
The Israeli government is under intense pressure from the families of the hostages and others, who are demanding through official letters, actions and constant demonstrations that it find a way to guarantee the freedom of these 136 people, believed to be two-thirds could be dead. The Biden administration is also increasingly demanding a break in the fighting.
Meanwhile, the US and mediators Egypt and Qatar continue to work on an agreement. A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on Thursday. Egypt urged Israel to also send representatives, but Netanyahu’s government declined the invitation, according to Israeli Channel 12 news.
The hostages’ families question the government
After learning of Israel’s refusal to send officials to Cairo, the Hostage Crisis and Missing Families Forum sent a letter to the War Cabinet this Friday saying that information about the government’s “coordinated attacks on the draft treaty could torpedo and condemn it.” hostages to death.
This and much similar information raises “difficult questions about the Cabinet’s commitment to the release of the hostages,” the letter continued. “Worse, a campaign of violent incitement portrays the hostages and their families as enemies who must be removed from the national agenda or silenced.”
The letter ended with a request for an immediate meeting between the forum and members of the War Cabinet to determine “whether it is still committed to the release of the abductees or whether powers should be transferred to a party committed to the release of the abductees.” to save her life.
And while some Israelis in the demonstrations are shouting “Everyone for everyone!” (referring to exchanging all hostages for all prisoners) and “Agreement Now!”, others demonstrated in Jerusalem, including relatives of soldiers killed in Gaza, calling on the government to let the army “finish the job.” That is, do not give in and do not sign a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, as the newspaper analyst points out HaaretzJack KhouriHamas knows how to interpret the map of Israeli society: Islamist leaders in Gaza and abroad understand very well that only the hostage issue can bring tens of thousands of Israelis onto the streets. Kohuri points out that almost no one in Israel is currently thinking about a diplomatic post-war solution, “about a Palestinian state, about the self-determination of the Palestinians and certainly not about the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza (…) in general.” seen as misleading and even an admission of defeat.
In reality, says Khouri, “it is only the fight for the release of the hostages that forces Netanyahu to address difficult issues on the home front and exposes his complete lack of vision.” And it is this point that continues to be the dissonance between the Prime Minister’s declared war aims: to free the hostages of the group he wants to destroy.
Rafah is shaking
The southern Gaza city, which has been full of refugees since fighting began on October 7, lies on the Gaza-Egypt border. An Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Thursday that Cairo was concerned about the prospect of a massive influx of Gazans fleeing across the border as the Israeli military expands its operations.
Images circulating on social media in recent weeks show that Egypt appears to be strengthening its border defenses with barbed wire and additional walls.
More than half of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents are refugees in the Rafah region amid a growing humanitarian crisis. The United Nations said the city was becoming a “pressure cooker of despair.” And in keeping with the disagreement, Netanyahu has ordered the army and defense ministry to submit to the cabinet plans to evacuate civilians in Rafah and defeat Hamas battalions still operating in the city.