Statements about the future price trend for bitcoin (BTC) are often based on past results. While no one obviously has a crystal ball regarding the future of bitcoin, historical data can lead to interesting insights. The bitcoin price has been moving sideways for a while and doesn’t seem to know which way it wants to go. When data from the past is taken into account, things don’t look very rosy for the short term.
Bitcoin decline imminent?
Prominent pseudonymous crypto analyst Fiery Trading has in a post on TradingView show that BTC could face some challenging months ahead.
The analyst suggests that bitcoin always underperforms in the third quarter of the year before the halving. The halving is less than 40,000 transaction blocks away and will take place sometime around April next year. From then on, miners’ reward will be equal to 3,125 BTC instead of the current 6,25 BTC.
In his report, the analyst discusses that the months of July to September in the so-called pre-halving year have so far always turned out negative. In total, Bitcoin has had three halvings so far and each time the third quarter in the year before the halving ended in the red.
If you dig even deeper into the price data, you will see that the price was also at least 20 percent lower than the opening price every time in the third quarter. If this line continues, it will mean that the bitcoin price will drop to $ 25,000 or lower sometime in the next 2 months.
Long-Term BTC Optimism
Many investors currently have their eyes on next year’s halving. So far, the halving has been a catalyst for a huge upward price movement every time and so there are high expectations among many from the crypto country.
While the price has been drawing the attention of investors for some time, we are still considerably higher than at the beginning of the year. Despite this, many long-term investors are not thinking about selling and much optimism remains about bitcoin’s long-term prospects.