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Guinea: organizing the transition and deciding the fate of Alpha Condé, the board’s challenges

Guinea: organizing the transition and deciding the fate of Alpha Condé, the board’s challenges

What is the situation in Guinea since the coup d’état that ended the reign of Alpha Condé? Consultations begin on September 14, 2021 in the capital Conakry to arrive “the inclusive and peaceful transition” promised by the scammers.

A coup generally well received by Bissau-Guineans

“We want Doumbouya to straighten out Guinea, confides a 35-year-old Guinean driver. Under Condé, we were suffering on all sides. “ The coup seems to raise high hopes among Guineans, although it surprised despite the months of tension that preceded it, provoked by Alpha Condé’s decision to run for a third term in October 2020. The repression of the protest caused dozens of civilian deaths and dozens of opponents were arrested before and after the presidential election, officially won by Alpha Condé, despite the credibility of the result being called into question.

Many Guineans thus expressed their support for the new military junta, welcoming the coup, the third of its kind in the country’s history marked by authoritarian or dictatorial regimes since independence in 1958. It is not just in the streets that the coup takes place. well received. Two opposition leaders, Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Touré, believe the soldiers’ intervention was the last possible recourse. “Could anyone else do this except the military? “, asks Sidya Touré, back in her country after ten months of exile.

What about the transition ?

When they came to power, the military dissolved the government and institutions. A consultation between the military, political forces and civil society is launched to prepare for the transition and formation of a government. Opponent Cellou Dalein Diallo, barred from running in the last presidential election, wants “free and transparent elections within a reasonable time”. Like the United Nations. Mahamat Saleh Annadif, Antonio Guterres’ special representative for West Africa and the Sahel, visited Guinea on the eve of the process. “Until now we said: ‘We want a reasonable duration, but the reasonable duration depends on the Guineans themselves’, he declared. O Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) demanded for its part “an immediate return to constitutional order”.

The international community pays attention to the state of the ousted president

ECOWAS and the African Union suspended Guinea. The first dispatched a mission on September 10, 2021 and has not issued any economic sanctions at the time, responding to the wishes of the two main opposition figures, Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Touré, who oppose it.

The United Nations also condemned the coup and demanded the release of Alpha Condé. They also indicated “the intention to support Guinea to get out of the crisis”, called Mahamat Saleh Annadif on September 13, 2021.

The United Nations and ECOWAS met with several Guinean political actors – the head of the junta, Lt. Col. Mamady Doumbouya, party leaders and diplomats , as well as Alpha Condé. “We guarantee his safety and health, he’s fine”, he said Mahamat Saleh Annadif.

The same applies to ECOWAS representatives. On the mission, Alpha Condé said “that he’s still president” and “that ECOWAS must restore it”, reported a source close to the delegation on condition of anonymity. The principle of releasing the former Guinean leader “is acquired”, said at the end of the visit the Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Fanta Cissé, without being clear how this could be translated in a concrete way.

The fate of Alpha Condé, a puzzle for scammers

By letting Alpha Condé out, Lieutenant Colonel Mamady Doumbouya would take a big risk, warning actors of the crisis of recent months who have lent the ousted president powerful friendships, including among African leaders, and a considerable fortune, even to ‘satisfy his probable thirst for revenge. Experts from the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank “quite conceivable” a counter-coup, as the security forces are “factioned”.

Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Touré, two former prime ministers, also warn of the risk of releasing Alpha Condé, as required by ECOWAS. They they believe in a strong capacity for discomfort of the former head of state. “Knowing Mr. Alpha Condé, I’m not sure he can keep quiet.” predicts Cellou Dalein Diallo.

Whether they release him or not, the military must also decide whether or not to create the conditions for a future trial. “Yes, Mr. Alpha Condé must be accountable to justice.”, told AFP Foniké Menguè, aka Oumar Sylla, a figure in the protest against the third term of Alpha Condé, released with several dozen others by the junta two days after the coup, and seriously ill after several months of detention.

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