Grayscale Research projects Bitcoin will reach new record highs by 2026, rejecting traditional cyclical downturns despite recent market volatility.
This optimistic forecast, detailed in a report issued Monday, contrasts with a more than 30% price correction Bitcoin experienced since its October peak. The digital asset manager’s analysts anticipate a shift in market dynamics.
Bitcoin briefly dipped to approximately $80,000 two weeks ago before recovering above $87,000 early Tuesday. The report emphasizes a long-term holding strategy to navigate such price swings.
🚀📈 Grayscale descarta recesión prolongada para Bitcoin
Anticipan nuevos máximos históricos en 2026 a pesar de la volatilidad actual.
Bitcoin se recupera y supera los USD $87.000 tras una caÃda de más de 30% desde octubre.
Analistas enfatizan la estrategia de HODL y… pic.twitter.com/x5KMZx3r7S
— Diario฿itcoin (@DiarioBitcoin) December 5, 2023
Grayscale specifically dismisses the long-held “four-year cycle” thesis, which tied Bitcoin’s price movements to its halving events. They argue this model no longer accurately reflects the maturing market.
“Although the landscape is uncertain, we believe that the four-year cycle thesis will prove incorrect, and that Bitcoin’s price could reach new highs next year,” Grayscale’s experts stated in their analysis, reinforcing their 2026 projection.
Key to this updated outlook is the increasing flow of institutional capital, replacing past retail-driven “parabolic rallies.” The report highlights 124 regulated crypto investment products in the U.S., managing $145 billion in assets. This figure has been boosted by recent regulatory approvals for exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Supporting the bullish sentiment are a favorable macroeconomic climate and potential regulatory advancements. The Federal Reserve may announce interest rate cuts in December, a move that could benefit Bitcoin against the U.S. dollar.
Additionally, a bipartisan crypto legislation draft, introduced in the Senate in November, could attract billions in institutional investment by 2026.
Tom Lee, CEO of BitMine, a company with a significant Ethereum treasury, echoed Grayscale’s optimism during a recent CNBC appearance. He noted a “decoupling” between crypto prices and underlying fundamentals.
“Crypto prices have fallen relentlessly even as fundamentals – measured by wallets, on-chain metrics, fees or tokenization – have advanced. Therefore, the risk/reward is attractive for BTC and ETH,” Lee stated. He also projects Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high by January 2026.
Grayscale’s report noted that Bitcoin has delivered annual returns of 35% to 75% over the past three to five years, despite over 50 corrections of 10% or more since 2010. Corrections exceeding 25% are common in bull markets and do not indicate prolonged downtrends.
The digital asset manager advises long-term holders to resist selling during these volatile periods, positioning Bitcoin as a foundational element of the future digital economy rather than a speculative asset.