The world is experiencing a moment of profound instability, characterized by a global distortion that has shaken the fragile geopolitical balances with unusual violence. This is no longer a “new world order,” but a volatile scenario where populism, historical revisionism, and spurious interests are intertwined in a dangerous dance. The war in Ukraine, the erosion of traditional alliances, and the growing influence of distorted narratives on the legitimacy of governments have all contributed to this precarious state of affairs.
The Erosion of the International Order
The international system born after World War II, though imperfect, represented a framework of stability and cooperation that avoided a new global conflagration. Despite multiple conflicts during the Cold War and the period following the fall of the USSR, the international order navigated tensions and wars of varying intensity without reaching nuclear confrontation. Disputes were generally resolved within a system governed by rules and multilateral agreements, reducing tension even if not resolving litigation or entrenched enmity.
The logical course of action would have been to evolve this order, adjusting it to new geopolitical realities and reinforcing its ability to respond to emerging challenges. However, instead of evolution, we’ve witnessed an accelerated decomposition process, where powers and political leaders have chosen to dismantle the existing framework rather than improve it. The gradual loss of economic, military, and geopolitical weight of Europe has further hindered this evolution.
Bilateral Negotiations and Global Safety
One of the primary axes of this new distortion is the strategy of bilateral negotiations, which can be dangerous when applied to geopolitics. This tactic involves launching extreme and disruptive proposals not with the intention of implementing them entirely but to force negotiations on the most favorable terms. Applying bargaining tactics from the bazaar to global safety and stability is nonsensical.
In the context of Donald Trump, this strategy has been a hallmark of his political approach since his first term, intensifying in “Trump 2.0” and adding significant risk to the disturbance of fragile global geostrategic balances. His focus on foreign policy is guided by a transactional logic, where each agreement is viewed as a commercial bargain, rather than a traditional vision of international relations. The oscillating rhetoric, which shifts from promises of peace to open support for Russia, has generated uncertainty among allies and encouraged the Kremlin’s narrative about Ukraine.
Russian Propaganda and the West
A particularly alarming phenomenon in this new global disorder is the effective penetration of Russian propaganda into Western political sectors. For years, the Kremlin has worked to rewrite recent history, presenting its aggression against Ukraine as a legitimate response to an alleged coup d’etat in 2014. This narrative, initially confined to Russian state media, has resonated in sectors of the extreme right and left in the West, with arguments such as the supposed illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government and the denial of Russian expansionism being adopted by public figures and political parties.
The War in Ukraine: An Existential Battle for Europe
The war in Ukraine is not merely a conflict between two nations; it’s an existential battle for Europe’s future. If Russia achieves its goal of neutralizing Ukraine and turning it into a satellite state, the consequences would be devastating. These include the compromise of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the imposition of draconian economic conditions, the strengthening of the strategy to create puppet states, a serious impact on the transatlantic relationship, and the potential destabilization of the security order in Europe, leaving countries like Poland and the Baltic States vulnerable to Russian expansionism.
European Response and Global Disorder
The European response to these challenges has been insufficient and uncoordinated, with leaders showing weakness and a fear of direct confrontation with Russia. The lack of a unified strategy has allowed Putin’s aggression to proceed without an appropriate response. Russia, despite having a GDP of only $2.2 billion, which is smaller than Italy’s and not significantly larger than Spain’s, derives its power from its military capacity and energy sector. However, its economy is not robust enough to sustain indefinite expansion without serious internal consequences.
Despite this scenario, there are elements that could act as brakes on Russia’s progress and the collapse of the international order. These include internal dissensions within the MAGA movement, the resistance of Eastern Europe, Russia’s economic difficulties due to sanctions and lack of access to advanced technology, and the determination of the Ukrainian people.
The world is facing one of the most serious geopolitical crises since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with the global disorder being the result of strategic decisions, distorted narratives, and the inability of international actors to face challenges in a coordinated manner. Europe cannot continue to act with weakness and division; it must take a central role in resolving conflicts to avoid paying the price of inaction. The future of Ukraine is, to a large extent, the future of Europe, and allowing its fall would not only be a triumph for Putin but a devastating blow to international order and global stability. It is time for the West to decide whether to be a passive spectator of world disorder or a key actor in achieving peace and stability.