German Defense Minister, General Carsten Breuer, sounds the alarm: NATO members must prepare for a potential Russian attack within the next four years. Breuer warns that Russia is producing hundreds of tanks annually, some of which could be used to attack NATO member states in the Baltic region as early as 2029.
The minister’s statement comes just weeks before NATO members gather for a summit in The Hague, where they are expected to discuss defense spending and other key issues. Breuer emphasizes that NATO faces a grave threat from Russia, one that he has never seen in his over 40 years of military service. Russia is building up its military capabilities, producing over 1,500 main battle tanks every year, and stockpiling ammunition.
Not all of these tanks are being sent to Ukraine, Breuer notes, but are instead being stored and integrated into Russia’s newly formed military structure, which is facing off against the West. Russia is also producing millions of artillery shells, with some 4 million 152mm shells manufactured in 2024 alone. Breuer warns that these stocks are being built up for a potential attack on NATO member states.
The minister’s warning is dire: NATO must be prepared to defend itself by 2029, and possibly even sooner. He emphasizes that there is no guarantee that an attack won’t happen before then, and that NATO members must be ready to respond immediately. The consequences of such an attack could be catastrophic, potentially drawing the US into a larger conflict with Russia.
Breuer points to the Suwalki Gap, a border region between Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Belarus, as one of the most vulnerable areas. He notes that countries like Estonia are acutely aware of the threat, with the conflict in Ukraine feeling much closer than it does in countries like Germany.
Russia views the war in Ukraine as part of a larger conflict with NATO, Breuer says, and is testing the alliance’s defenses through various means, including attacks on undersea cables in the Baltic, strikes on public transportation in Europe, and mysterious drone sightings over critical infrastructure in Germany.
In response, NATO members must bolster their militaries and take the threat seriously. Breuer urges a renewed commitment to defense spending and a focus on deterring potential aggression. The stakes are high, and NATO must be prepared to defend itself against the growing threat from Russia.