The first polls after the closure of the electoral colleges in Germany confirm a victory for the democrats of the CDU/CSU and a strong advance of the ultra-rightist Alternative for Germany (AFD), which doubles its votes from the 2021 elections and will be the second strongest party in the new Bundestag (Federal Parliament). According to a ZDF public television survey, the conservative block formed by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by the candidate for the Foreign Ministry, Friedrich Merz, and its twin, the Bavarian Social Christian Union (CSU), would achieve around 29.5% of the votes.
In second place, in terms of voting intention, the ultra-rightist AFD would be positioned, with 19.5% of the votes, doubling its 2021 results. The Chancellor’s Social Democrats (SPD), led by Olaf Scholz, would come in third, with 16% of the votes, making them the biggest losers of the electoral night, relegated to the third political force. The Greens would occupy fourth place with 13.5% of the votes, and the Left party, with 8.5%, would be the big surprise, as until a few weeks ago, the polls had placed Die Linke outside of Parliament.
The Liberals of the FDP, with 4.9% of the votes, and the Populist Left Alliance, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, with 4.7%, would be left out of the Bundestag, according to these projections. The participation in the elections was 52% at 2 pm, four hours after the closure of the electoral schools, announced the president of the Central Electoral Commission, Ruth Brand. She also assured that there had been no remarkable incidents. In the general elections of 2021, at the same time, the participation was 36.5%. In a brief statement to the media, Brand explained that this percentage excludes the mail-in vote.
Almost 60 million citizens were summoned to the polls on Sunday to choose a new parliament of 630 seats. The president of the Electoral Commission, usually the head of the Federal Statistics Office of Germany, said that this 52% figure, which she described as “high,” is a projection based on the data from selected electoral colleges. Brand expressed her hope that the electoral day would be characterized by high electoral participation, which in 2021 reached 76.4%, and called on all those who had not yet cast their vote to do so.
Election Projections and Trends
The outcome of these elections marks a significant shift in the political landscape of Germany, with the AFD making substantial gains and the SPD experiencing a notable decline. The CDU/CSU’s victory, though not entirely unexpected, will likely have implications for the formation of the new government and the country’s future policies.
Implications of the Election Results
As the dust settles on the election, analysts will be closely watching the coalition-building process, given that no single party has achieved a majority. The AFD’s strong showing has raised concerns among some observers, who point to the party’s extreme views on immigration and other issues. Meanwhile, the SPD’s poor performance has led to speculation about the party’s future and its ability to remain a major force in German politics.