As Germany prepares to hold elections that will be nothing short of decisive for both the nation and Europe, the country stands on the cusp of a significant moment. The next chancellor will have to tackle a plethora of challenges, including the rise of the extreme right, the economic recession that has affected a country traditionally seen as the engine of Europe, and of course, the complex geopolitical landscape. This landscape is marked by factors such as Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States and ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
The challenge ahead is complex and could signal a new cycle change in German politics, as reflected in the latest polls. Since current Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for early elections, Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has established himself as the front-runner. The CDU is expected to secure around 30% of the votes, compared to the 21% estimated for the ultra-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) and the 15% that the Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Scholz, is projected to achieve, which would be its worst historical result.
Who is Friedrich Merz, the favorite in the elections?
Friedrich Merz, 69, is the CDU candidate and the primary contender to lead the next German government, according to surveys. Born into a well-off family, he studied law and practiced the profession until 1989, when he was elected to the European Parliament. Later, in 1992, he became a part of the Bundestag. His political career has intersected with the rise of Angela Merkel on several occasions. It wasn’t until Merkel announced her withdrawal that Merz decided to return to the political arena to try and lead the CDU. After two unsuccessful attempts, he was finally chosen in 2022.
The Right of the CDU
Since then, Merz has sought to distance himself from Merkel’s centrist line, taking a right turn and adopting a harder tone on issues like immigration, aiming to attract AFD voters. In fact, Merz faced harsh criticism after attempting to promote an immigration bill with the support of the ultra-right party, a proposal that was rejected in the Bundestag. Subsequently, the CDU leader assured that he would not form a government with the AFD, led by Alice Weidel.
Among his main proposals are the hardening of border controls to curb irregular immigration, tax reduction, and cuts in social spending, in addition to incentives for workers. He has also defended a firmer stance on aid to Ukraine, advocating for the sending of cruise missiles, a measure that would go beyond the policies followed by the current government.