France is the only country in the European Union with autonomous nuclear capacity, enabling it to launch missiles with atomic warheads of its own production without relying on the United States. This capability is particularly notable, as other EU countries, such as the United Kingdom, store American nuclear bombs. Recently, Paris has expressed its willingness to utilize its nuclear deterrence to aid in protecting Europe. This initiative was sparked by a request from Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU and potential future Chancellor of Germany, who advocates for greater strategic independence from the United States under the presidency of Donald Trump.
Merz has asked France and the United Kingdom to extend their nuclear protection to Germany and other European countries. This move is part of an effort to guarantee continental security without depending solely on the US nuclear umbrella. Currently, the United States maintains around 150 nuclear warheads in European military bases across four countries: Italy, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands, as well as in Türkiye. This development comes shortly after Donald Trump’s statements expressing doubts about Washington’s commitment to the security of the continent and the defense of Ukraine.
A senior French official explained that the possible deployment of combat aircraft with nuclear capacity in Germany would send a forceful message to Moscow. In parallel, diplomats in Berlin have indicated that this measure would also increase pressure on the United Kingdom to adopt a similar stance. The United Kingdom possesses a formidable deterrence capability but is no longer part of the European Union.
France boasts approximately 300 nuclear warheads and launch capabilities from submarines and combat aircraft, making it the only nuclear power in the EU following Brexit and the third-largest after the US and Russia. This arsenal is based on a second-strike force, ensuring retaliation in the event of an attack. The notion that its nuclear arsenal can protect Europe has been raised several times, especially amidst uncertainty about the United States’ commitment to the continent’s security. France is emerging as a key actor in the construction of an autonomous defense strategy in Europe.
The French air nuclear capacity is centered around the ASMPA missile, a cruise projectile with a 300-kiloton nuclear warhead that can be transported by Rafale B and Rafale M combat aircraft of the Air Force and the French Navy. French President Emmanuel Macron addressed this issue with Merz in a telephone conversation before traveling to the White House, where he presented his proposal for European security and the defense of Ukraine to Trump. During the Washington Summit, held on the third anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine, Trump hinted that his administration would not offer Kyiv security guarantees after a potential peace agreement. In response, Macron emphasized that peace “should not be a surrender of Ukraine” and urged European countries to assume a more active role in the continent’s defense.
French nuclear deterrence operates independently of NATO, while the United Kingdom has integrated its Trident missile system into the Alliance’s defensive strategy. However, Merz’s proposal opens a new chapter in European security by raising the possibility of a “nuclear umbrella” led by European powers.
German diplomatic sources have indicated that negotiations on this issue have not yet begun, as Merz is currently engaged in conversations for the formation of a coalition government in Berlin. Nevertheless, if the United States decides to reduce its nuclear presence in Germany, Merz’s proposal could gain traction and alter the strategic balance in the region.
In 2020, Macron suggested that Europe should discuss the role of French nuclear deterrence in its safety. In a speech at the Paris War School, he stated that France was willing to initiate a “strategic dialogue” about the role of its deterrence in European defense. However, he made it clear that this was not about integrating its arsenal into a common EU defense structure but about opening a conversation about how it could contribute to the continent’s security.
The debate on nuclear deterrence is part of a broader context of divergences between the United States and Europe regarding the war in Ukraine. In a recent visit to Kyiv, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson argued that Ukraine should have its own nuclear arsenal in the face of the growing threat from Russia. In contrast, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer reaffirmed the United Kingdom’s commitment to European security, ensuring that his country is “ready and prepared” to support a future peacekeeping agreement with troops on the ground, unlike the position adopted by Washington.