The United Kingdom and France are spearheading the formation of the “Coalition of the Willing,” a multinational force aimed at ensuring Ukraine’s security in the aftermath of a potential ceasefire with Russia. This initiative, announced by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, seeks to consolidate a European response to the negotiations between the Trump administration and Vladimir Putin. The plan involves deploying up to 30,000 European and Canadian troops to protect critical infrastructure, train the Ukrainian army, and patrol the Black Sea.
The coalition’s goal is to deter any potential Russian attempt to resume hostilities, thereby strengthening Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. To achieve this, aircraft like the F-35 and Eurofighter Typhoon could be used for air surveillance missions, while warships would patrol the Black Sea to prevent Russian blockades of Ukrainian exports and imports. Several countries, including Canada, Denmark, and Sweden, have expressed their willingness to join the alliance, whereas Germany, Italy, and Spain remain opposed. The United States, although crucial for logistical and intelligence support, has yet to guarantee its backing, which could jeopardize the deployment.
This initiative was discussed during a summit in London, where 19 international leaders analyzed the next steps to ensure stability in the region. The European plan, being developed in parallel with the Trump-Putin negotiations, assigns Ukraine a key role in monitoring a potential 1,230-kilometer buffer zone between its territory and the areas occupied by Russian forces. Meanwhile, the European coalition would focus on strengthening Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, effectively turning the country into a “porcupine with steel quills,” as described by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. This approach aims to deter Russia from violating any potential ceasefire agreement.
Despite European efforts, the coalition’s success will heavily depend on the logistical and intelligence support provided by the United States. Washington would need to facilitate the transportation of troops and military equipment to Ukraine, as well as provide access to satellites and surveillance aircraft to monitor threats on the front lines. However, Trump has shown reluctance to commit to this deployment, arguing that additional military support is unnecessary if a peace agreement with Putin is reached. This stance has generated concern among European leaders, who seek assurance that the United States would respond with lethal force if European troops are attacked.
Challenges within the Coalition
The coalition faces internal challenges, with Germany, traditionally cautious in its relationship with Russia, being reluctant to support the deployment of troops to Ukraine. Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz described conversations about the plan as “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate.” Although his successor, Friedrich Merz, might adopt a more dynamic approach, there are no guarantees that Germany will overcome its historical reservations. Poland, one of Europe’s largest military spenders, has also declined to participate directly in the mission, citing the need to keep its forces on the eastern flank of NATO to deter a potential Russian attack.
Who’s In and Who’s Out of the Coalition?
In addition to the United Kingdom and France, countries like Canada, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the Baltic states have expressed their willingness to join the coalition. However, the participation of these countries will depend on internal political decisions and their ability to overcome their own military limitations. On the other hand, close allies of the Kremlin, such as Hungary and Slovakia, have refused to send troops, citing fear of provoking Russia. This division within Europe complicates the formation of a solid and unified coalition.
Ukraine remains heavily dependent on Western military support, with estimates suggesting that 55% of the arms and materials it uses come from its own production, while 25% come from Europe and only 20% from the United States. A reduction in this support, as Trump has hinted, could have devastating consequences for Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Following the London summit, NATO Chief Mark Rutte stated that “more European countries will increase defense spending,” but did not provide details. He also described the increase in defense spending as “very good news” and reiterated the need for a “more fair balance” with the United States.
British Prime Minister Starmer emphasized that European leaders will meet again soon, saying, “Today, we stand at a historic crossroads. It’s not time to keep talking; it’s time to act, to take a step forward, and lead. And to unite around a new plan for a just and lasting peace.” The success of the coalition will depend on the ability of its members to overcome their differences and work towards a common goal, ensuring the stability and security of the region.