The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, met with Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, during a historic two-day visit to India. This meeting was pivotal in strengthening cooperation in security and economy, especially since both parties are nearing the final stretch of negotiations for an ambitious free trade agreement. If this pact materializes this year, it would become the most significant of its kind globally, highlighting the growing relevance of this strategic alliance in a context of geopolitical instability, exacerbated by Donald Trump’s positions regarding Ukraine and the escalation of the commercial war.
At a conference in a Think-Tank, von der Leyen announced that the block is considering establishing a “security and defense association” with India, similar to the agreements it has with Japan and South Korea. The European leader stressed that the current international climate, characterized by competition between great powers, represents a key opportunity to reconfigure collaboration. This occurs in a context of growing friction between the EU and the United States in commercial and tariff matters, as well as in relation to the conflict in Ukraine. “In the last 30 years, we have made significant advances, but we are still far from exploiting all our potential. It is not time to limit our synergy,” said Von der Leyen in the event ‘India’s World’.
Von der Leyen, accompanied by the EU Commissioners’ College, began a high-profile visit to India, emphasizing that this association could become one of the most relevant of the 21st century, establishing New Delhi as an essential pillar of European foreign policy in the future. “This journey must mark the beginning of a new era. Prime Minister Modi and I share the conviction that it is time to take our strategic association to the next level, for our safety and prosperity, as well as to face global challenges,” he added. He also stressed that the strengthening of concurrence in areas such as trade, technology, security, and connectivity is essential to advance their relationships.
Regarding the free trade agreement, von der Leyen expressed its commitment: “It would be the largest of its kind in the world. Although I recognize that the road will not be easy, I am convinced that the moment is conducive to both sides.” The negotiations for this treaty began in 2007 but were interrupted in 2013 due to stagnations on critical issues such as the reduction of tariffs in automobile products, wine, and European dairy products. However, the discussions resumed in 2022, and it is anticipated that the next round of negotiations will take place next month in Brussels.
Von der Leyen emphasized that both actors can offer unique alternatives and tools that will strengthen their position in an increasingly complex global environment. The commercial block of the 27 is positioned as the main commercial partner of India, with a volume of total trade that reached $137.4 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24, according to data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce. India has experienced vertiginous growth, consolidating itself as the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity, with projections that position it as the third global economy by 2030.
India’s growing relevance as a de facto leader of the Global South has consolidated its status as a strategic partner for the community block. This strengthening of the relationship is driven not only by the sustained economic ascent of China but also by the increasingly erratic trend of former president Trump towards the European continent, recently evidenced by its announcement of a 25% tariff to imports from the region. Given the challenge that represents the new administration of Trump, Brussels is facing the imperative need to forge geopolitical alternatives.
In a notable turn, von der Leyen adopted an unusually conciliatory tone towards China during their speech in Davos in January, emphasizing that both must “strive for mutual benefits.” However, the second world economy continues to be a considerable strategic challenge for the continent. In this context, the strengthening of relations with India, a democracy with a growing influence in the global field, is presented as a viable strategy.
Without a doubt, significant challenges persist. In recent years, it has been complicated for the community block to calibrate its diplomatic approach to Ukraine in relation to India, given the entrenched historical relationship of this country with Moscow. This situation could be more complicated as negotiations between Washington and Moscow advance on a possible peace agreement in Ukraine, an approach that Europe rejects, but that it is likely to have the support of the Indian administration.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, the West has expressed concern about the position of New Delhi, which has refused to condemn Russian aggression and join international sanctions. This approach raises a dilemma for the international community, which observes how India benefits from reduced prices of Russian oil while refining raw for the global market, indirectly feeding Moscow’s warlike effort. European officials have indicated that in next conversations with their Indian counterparts, the question of the application of sanctions will be addressed, although Russian oil is not expected to be the main focus of the dialogue.
An EU diplomat commented: “It is time to stop pointing to India for its oil imports; the real problem is high-end technology exports to Russia, where they know they have a dilemma.” Although Russia has been the main armament provider in India for more than twenty years, with 65% of its acquisitions from Moscow, New Delhi is beginning to diversify its sources of defense. In this context, European diplomats see an opportunity to offer alternatives, as evidenced by France’s recent agreement to supply India combat airplanes.
The strengthening of military cooperation between Russia and China adds another layer of complexity to the situation, which has led New Delhi to be cautious. “We can use this dynamic in our favor, establishing that ‘your enemy is our enemy’; thus, we can join forces,” concluded a European diplomat.
An increasingly solid relationship
India established its diplomatic relations with the European Economic Community, precursor of the current European Union, in 1962. The signing of the joint political declaration in 1993 and the Cooperation Agreement in 1994 lay the basis for the strengthening of bilateral ties. Cooperation has been structured through a multilevel institutional architecture, highlighting the India-EU summits, of which fifteen to date have been held. The first of these meetings took place in Lisbon in June 2000, and was during the fifth, held in The Hague in 2004, when the relationship was elevated to the strategic association status.