Electric vehicles erase their higher initial manufacturing carbon footprint in just two years of driving, quickly outperforming gasoline cars in overall emissions.
The finding comes from a new study by Duke University scientists, supported by Albemarle Corporation, a North Carolina chemicals firm involved in battery value chains. The research was published in the scientific journal PLOS Climate.
Manufacturing an electric vehicle (EV) initially generates about 30% more carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than producing a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) car. This difference largely stems from the extraction of minerals like lithium and the energy-intensive process of battery manufacturing.
However, this environmental debt is rapidly paid off once the EV begins operation. The absence of direct tailpipe emissions allows electric vehicles to achieve carbon neutrality against an ICE car covering the same distance within approximately 24 months.
Researchers used the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to assess long-term interactions between energy, economic, and climate systems. They analyzed emissions across four scenarios of increasing EV adoption in the United States through 2050.
The analysis covered emissions from fuel production, battery manufacturing, vehicle assembly, and vehicle operation.
The study projects that as battery production becomes more efficient, each additional kilowatt-hour of lithium-ion battery capacity will lead to a reduction of approximately 220 kilograms of CO2 by 2030, further decreasing to 127 kilograms of CO2 by 2050.
Examining the global impacts of air pollution and climate change, the team found that the economic value of damages associated with gasoline-powered cars is 2 to 3.5 times higher than that of EVs over an estimated 18-year lifespan. This calculation includes social costs such as healthcare expenses for illnesses caused by air pollution.
It is important to note that these conclusions are based on computational modeling and scenario simulations. The study did not factor in certain emission categories, such as those related to the disposal or recycling of components from either vehicle type, nor those generated during the construction of charging infrastructure.