Elections in Chile: how are the voters who are going to define the second round

A relatively even scenario, with an advantage for Gabriel Boric, is what is presented, according to the polls, as the most likely to happen on Sunday 19 when the second round of the presidential elections in Chile takes place.

After the first round of November 21, the leftist Boric and the rightist José Antonio Kast quickly began contacts to gather the support that would allow them to win the presidency.

Kast obtained 27.9% in the first round and received the support of the ruling bloc that promoted Sebastián Sichel who received 12.8%.

Boric, meanwhile, received 25.8% of the votes and has the backing of former candidates Yasna Provoste (11.6%) and Marco Enríquez-Ominami (7.6%).

Franco Parisi, from the People’s Party, was one of the surprises of the election with 12.8%. The leader did not favor either of the two candidates, but had a conversation via YouTube with Kast. Something that Boric was not willing to do.

Voter profiles

Facing an election that is not mandatory, according to Chilean regulations, it becomes a key element to see the profiles of the voters of each bloc.

An analysis of the site specialized in electoral issues Decide Chile shows that Boric prevails among those under 30 years of age. “34% of voters under 30 vote for him and today there are more young people voting than in the first round of 2017,” explained Cristóbal Huneeus, founder of the site.

As for Kast, Huneeus said, “it fared much better in those over 50, especially among the old enrollees.”

With the candidates for the second round located on the left and the right, and taking into account the endorsements they have won in the last four weeks, it remains to be seen how Franco Parisi’s voters might behave.

“20% of those under 30 years of age voted for Franco Parisi, that’s a surprise. He got much more votes in that sector than Sichel, Provoste and even Marco Enríquez-Ominami. So, it is an alert for both Gabriel Boric and José Antonio Kast “, said Huneeus.

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For its part, the pollster Criteria assessed that there is information that indicates that the “electorate of Parisi may be more open to vote for Boric than for Kast.”

Anti-match

Another work carried out by political scientists Pablo Argote and Giancarlo Visconti for the Chilean site Third Dose summarizes the characteristics of the Parisi voter and gives some clues about where he could lean this Sunday.

That voter “is young, from the lower-middle class, mainly male in the upper-middle sectors, but mostly female in the lower sectors.”

It is also “strongly anti-party” and against “traditional coalitions.” “Almost half do not identify with any ideological label, and those who do are mainly from the center,” they noted.

According to the analysis, the male voter of Parisi leans a little to the right and while the women are more of the center.

Eolo Díaz-Tendero, a political analyst at the University of O’Higgins, told the newspaper The Mercury that in this election the “hinge effect” of the voters of Parisi is presented. “Until now it has not been decided to support either of the two candidates. Deep down, they are playing the role of the center or hinge party,” he said. He added that if the People’s Party voter is ordered in the “cleavage of ‘those of us outside of politics’ versus those of us, his indecision is quite important.”

In polls, they show a range of undecided that goes from 16% to 25%, depending on the company that collected the data.

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