“Dismantling Hamas will not solve the problem either”

The USA is now putting pressure on Israel to significantly reduce the number of deaths in Gaza. The Israeli operation has caused the deaths of almost 20,000 people, mostly civilians, in ten weeks. Entire families are on the victim list. The numbers have alarmed the Biden administration, which is demanding behind the scenes that its interlocutors in the Israeli government end the offensive in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the CIA, Mossad and Qatar are negotiating terms to encourage the release of the 132 Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas. Although the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahuremains committed to putting an end to the Palestinian Islamist group. Rayan Haddadassociated researcher at the Center for Arab Research and Political Studies (CAREP) in Paris, describes the current scenario in an interview with LA RAZÓN.

Israel’s stated goal is to destroy Hamas. A plan that inevitably involves the liquidation of its leaders, in particular Yahya Sinwar, who would have been the intellectual author of the October 7 attack. It is possible?

Israel believes that it will be able to eliminate Hamas’s political and military leadership in Gaza sooner or later. But this goal is far from achieved and, more importantly, it does not solve the problem, as Hamas likely has a chain of command ready to take power if necessary. And assuming that Israel succeeds in destroying Hamas and not just weakening its military capabilities, this will not solve the problem either, since in this case we must expect the emergence of groups given the scale of the suffering suffered , who are even more radical than Hamas is the civilian population. from Gaza. Only a political solution would break the cycle of violence.

How long do you think Hamas can resist militarily?

It appears that Hamas is capable of fighting for several months and, given Israel’s stated war aims, just needs to survive this war to achieve victory.

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How do you imagine the future of the Gaza Strip the day after the war? Netanyahu rules out a Palestinian Authority (PNA) government.

Israel appears to ignore the question of the “day after tomorrow” and risks a major security dilemma if the war ends without a political horizon for the Palestinian question. If Hamas is defeated, the Israeli military could decide to exercise military control over Gaza, even though it risks sinking into a quagmire given the likely impending guerrilla actions. The other option would be for Israel to delegate civil and military administration of the Gaza Strip to an as-yet undetermined Palestinian “partner.” In this case, this “partner” would risk losing all legitimacy with the population it is supposed to take over in the context of an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.

The US vetoed the ceasefire plan in the UN Security Council. What roadmap is the White House following?

While the United States has vetoed a Security Council resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire, it is undoubtedly aware that it cannot maintain this position for too long or risk reinforcing its diplomatic isolation to tighten this issue even further. That’s why behind the scenes they want the fighting to end before the end of the year, while Israel estimates that it will take much more time to eradicate Hamas. In addition, the Gaza war complicates Joe Biden’s presidential campaign, which must necessarily take into account the left wing of the Democratic Party, which is in solidarity with the Palestinian issue. This is, among other things, why the Biden administration is already projecting itself into the post-war period, reaffirming the need for a two-state solution and taking an increasingly tough line against the Israeli settlers responsible for the violence against the Palestinians West Bank.

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