The little phrase quickly went around the world. Sunday shortly after 10 a.m., Agence France presse announced the abolition of the morality police in Iran. Information that goes around the world, however, it is inaccurate. And even if it had been founded and verified, would the supposed disappearance of this police dedicated to controlling the proper respect of Islamic constraints in the public space have been enough to calm the wind of anger that has been rumbling in the Iranian streets for almost three months? ?
Not at all, according to Jonathan Piron, historian specializing in Iran for Ethiopia and Armin Arefi, a senior reporter at Point specialized in the Middle East and author ofA spring in Tehran. The two specialists contacted by 20 minutes ensure that the multiple demands of the demonstrators go much deeper than the question of the veil and the morality police.
Ambiguous situation
The ambiguous announcement that you may have seen in the media at the end of the weekend, or even at the start of the week, is in fact not what has been making headlines around the world. It is not a question of the abolition of the morality police, but of reflection on the wearing of the compulsory veil, with “answers expected within a fortnight”, specifies Armin Arefi to 20 minutes. No decision has therefore been taken. On the other hand, the person who uttered the misinterpreted sentence is the Attorney General of Iran, a personality who “does not have the authority to abolish the morality police”, adds Jonathan Piron. And even if this police were abolished by the regime, “wearing the veil would remain obligatory, so who would take over their powers? asks the historian.
Finally, this exit could mark the regime’s desire to make a kind of diversion in the face of the violent repression of the demonstrations, both aimed at the international community and the demonstrators. While the regime has been unable to put an end to the demonstrations for more than two months, “this pseudo-overture aims to give the impression that the regime has taken into account some of the protesters’ demands, but also to divert the attention”, explains Armin Arefi. Because this announcement, which is not one, comes at the right time: since Monday and until Wednesday, a national strike is organized throughout the country and followed by many traders. The end of the morality police could then serve to steal the show, or at least throw a veil over the unprecedented mobilization in the country. In any case, the abolition of the morality police has been neither confirmed nor invalidated.
Overthrow the regime
And even if it was officially announced by the competent authorities, the demonstrators never demanded either the abolition of the morality police or the end of the compulsory wearing of the veil. “Their claims are much deeper,” says Jonathan Piron. “This anger is multifactorial: it was triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini, but also reflects a desire for equality between men and women, respect for different communities, discontent among students, strikes by lawyers and certain workers in the hydrocarbons sector, he develops. It is a syncretism”. The images of stores that lowered their shutters on Monday and Tuesday, even in remote villages in the country, show the extent of the mobilization. Especially since in an economy already weakened by international sanctions, the lack of redistribution and the precariousness which increasingly affects the middle classes, “it’s daring to be on strike at the moment”, underlines the historian .
Moreover, “there is no slogan that speaks of the veil or the morality police, the demonstrators speak of the regime”, recalls Armin Arefi. And today, unlike all the protest movements that have shaken the country for several years (we remember in particular the “green movement” in 2009), “young people no longer believe that the regime can be reformed from within” , explains Jonathan Piron. “The time for reform is over, it’s too late,” agrees Armin Arefi. The anger that is expressed is directed against the power in place, against the regime of the Islamic Republic. According to the Middle East specialist, “only the end of the regime” could satisfy those mobilized. However, “neither of the two actors has the power to extinguish or overthrow the other, because the demonstrators are not numerous enough and the regime is unable to crush the mobilization which has left to settle in time. », Comments in turn Jonathan Piron.
Counterproductive repression
So to maintain itself, the regime uses its favorite weapon: repression. On Tuesday, five new death sentences were handed down against participants in protests, making a total of eleven people sentenced to death. “The power brutalizes to demobilize, uses fear, brandishes the Syrian scenario, but now most of the demonstrators are beyond the barrier of fear and if the death sentences are carried out, resentment will increase”, predicts Jonathan Piron.
It could push even more people into the streets, convincing the undecided to fight alongside the protesters. “From the moment the taboo of death is exceeded, this threat will accentuate the mobilization”, he insists. “The fierce repression only pushed the demonstrators further to be intransigent, there is a real revolutionary logic today”, adds Armin Arefi. And indeed, among the slogans chanted in the Iranian streets, this one clearly conveys this crest line on which the regime is playing: “If you execute the demonstrators, it will be an uprising. »