A significant strategic shift by institutional Bitcoin holder Strategy, involving a substantial cash reserve and reduced BTC purchases, signals a prepared stance for a potential market downturn and could temper future crypto market enthusiasm, according to CryptoQuant.
Strategy, previously known for aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, is now building a USD $1.44 billion cash reserve. This financial maneuver is interpreted by CryptoQuant as a sign that Strategy no longer views its extensive Bitcoin holdings as “untouchable.”
The cash reserve aims to cover at least 12 months of financial commitments, with Strategy intending to expand this buffer to 24 months or more. CryptoQuant suggests this provides a strong defense against adverse market conditions.
Concurrently, Strategy’s monthly Bitcoin accumulation has drastically declined. Purchases fell from 134,000 BTC in November 2024 to 9,100 BTC in November 2025, with only 135 BTC acquired in December.
CryptoQuant’s analysis, cited by The Block, suggests Strategy is preparing for a potential fall in Bitcoin’s price. An extreme scenario could see Bitcoin drop to USD $55,000 next year.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, commented that if current market trends persist, Bitcoin could trade in a range between USD $70,000 and USD $55,000 in the coming year.
This strategic pivot marks a clear departure from Strategy’s playbook between 2020 and November 2025, when it exclusively issued shares and debt to buy more Bitcoin.
While this shift may temper crypto market euphoria due to reduced institutional demand, CryptoQuant notes it also lowers the systemic risk of forced sales. This could support a more sustainable long-term market structure.
CryptoQuant’s own market indicators, including its Bull Score Index, have fallen to their most pessimistic levels since January 2022, confirming a broader bearish trend for Bitcoin.
Strategy has acknowledged that it might sell Bitcoin under certain conditions, such as a prolonged bear market. Moreno clarified that the company would likely explore derivatives first, with direct sales being considered only as a last resort.