A friend Bitcoin (BTC) investor and co-founder of investment firm Onramp, Jesse Myers, has made a prediction that may surprise many. According to a recent post on halving in 2024. This is in contrast to many other analysts who are already anticipating fireworks leading up to this event.
The Bitcoin halving is just around the corner
For those unfamiliar with the phenomenon, Bitcoin has a four-year cycle in which the reward for mining a block halves. In 2024, this reward will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This typically affects supply and demand and is eagerly awaited by many analysts. In the past was the BTC course sometimes near a bisection
#Bitcoin won’t hit $100,000 before the next halving…
Because the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is wrong.
Instead, the market will price in the changed reality in the 12 to 18 months after the halving.
— Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴) (@Croesus_BTC) August 14, 2023
But Myers isn’t so optimistic — at least not in the short term. He argues that the market will only feel the effects of the halving after the fact. In his words, “Bitcoin will not go to $100,000 before the next halving.”
Why does he think that? Myers points to the so-called Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMF), the idea that market prices always reflect the true value of an asset. According to him, this idea is simply “wrong”. He anticipates that the market will not react to the changed reality until 12 to 18 months after the halving.
However, Myers’ view does not agree with all of the predictions. Some believe Bitcoin could break out at any time, with October being the much-discussed month for a possible uptrend. Robert Kiyosaki, best known for his book Rich Dad Poor Dad even that optimistic that he is earlier bullish Another prediction.
BTC predictions abound
And there are more opinions. The stock-to-flow (S2F) model by PlanB, a Dutch analyst, is popular with the bitcoin community. This model examines the relationship between bitcoin production and the existing supply and analyzes possible future price developments.
In his analysis PlanB believes that historically, BTC price will tend to increase post-halving, with peaks occurring between the two halvings. Based on this model, the bitcoin price could simply skyrocket in late 2024 or early 2025.