The world’s attention was captured a week ago when it became known that the town of Rubaya in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had been taken over by the rebel group M23. The fighting for the city began on the previous Friday afternoon, with the M23 and its Rwandan allies on one side, and the Congolese army, Wazalendo militiamen, Romanian mercenaries, and an international coalition consisting of United Nations peacekeepers and a force sent by the Southern Africa Development Community on the other. Despite the apparent advantage of the Congolese side, the M23 ultimately emerged victorious.
The current situation has a disturbing undertone. The M23 had previously taken control of Rubaya in 2012, and to understand the differences between the two instances, Julián Gómez-Cambronero, author of the book “Who cares about the Congo?”, was consulted. He pointed out that the international response this time around is significantly different, with only verbal condemnations and no major consequences, unlike in 2012 when Rwanda received warnings from donor countries. Gómez-Cambronero also noted that the M23’s advance towards Bukavu seems to be part of a larger offensive.
Following their victory in Rubaya, the M23 immediately began moving towards Kivu Sur, facing little opposition, and by Thursday afternoon, they were only 80 kilometers away from the city. It appears that the fighting for control of Bukavu, a major source of Congolese coltan, will begin soon. Corneille Nangaa, a political leader of the M23, stated that they will continue fighting until they reach Kinshasa, although he did not explain how they plan to achieve this, given the significant distance between their current position and the capital.
The current Congolese president, Félix Tshisekedi, announced that a coordinated response is being carried out against the rebels and their sponsors, and he called on the country’s youth to enlist in the regular army to counter the threat in the eastern provinces. Many Congolese citizens are demanding a stronger response from their president, with some even calling for an attack on Kigali, the Rwandan capital.
The threat of an attack on Rwanda is being taken seriously, with the Rwandan army on high alert. Paul Kagame, the President of Rwanda, held two phone conversations with Cyril Ramaphosa, the President of South Africa, but the results were not hopeful. Ramaphosa described the Rwandan army as “a militia” and stated that the South African troops in the Congo will be well-equipped and supported during their mission. In response, Kagame accused the South African troops of collaborating with the Congolese government to fight against their own people.
Tensions are running high, with 13 South African soldiers already killed in the conflict. Other international casualties include troops from Malawi and Tanzania. Gómez-Cambronero believes that the limit of the conflict will be determined by Kagame’s ambition, as well as the involvement of neighboring countries, which could lead to a serious crisis involving a large number of African nations, potentially resulting in a third Congo war.