A scientific study has shown that emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases peaked in 2023, but the decline will occur gradually this year thanks to increased use of renewable energy sources.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have increased steadily since the Industrial Revolution. In 2023, global CO2 emissions reached an all-time high of 36.3 billion tons. However, there are signs that emissions could fall in 2024.
Scientists from Britain's University of Exeter published a report in the journal New scientist This shows that greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1% last year compared to the previous year. However, this year the situation will improve. It is estimated that global CO2 emissions could fall by 2.5%. It will be a historic moment.
The report attributes this decline to several factors, including:
- The rise in fossil fuel prices has made renewable energy more competitive.
- Improving renewable energy technology has made it more affordable and efficient.
- Governments' commitment to combating climate change, which has led to the adoption of policies that support the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Industrial forces and CO2 emissions
This could be the first step toward “curing” the major disease plaguing our planet: global warming. With the development of green technologies, the seemingly unstoppable growth curve of CO2 emissions would slow down.
Even the International Energy Agency (IEA), the agency that measures pollution caused by fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), had to admit the “newness” that many did not expect. Europe's industrial powers, together with China and the United States, have done their homework: wind turbines and solar panels now provide electricity at competitive prices.
However, phasing out the use of dirty fuels will not happen overnight as we are still a long way from achieving the goal agreed at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai: achieving net zero emissions by 2050.
The Chinese syndrome
China, the world's largest carbon emitter, is reducing pollution by installing large-scale clean energy infrastructure.
According to a study by Carbon Brief, the Asian giant increased the share of electricity generated from solar and wind sources in the 12 months of 2023.
Let's add that a few weeks ago the Chinese automaker BYD (Build Your Dreams) overtook Elon Musk's Tesla to become the largest seller of electric vehicles in the world.
Production of “plug-in cars” could reach two million units in 2024 as the company aims to deliver around half a million vehicles per quarter. Currently, two-fifths of cars sold in China are electric vehicles. This figure represents 60% of total global sales.
Swiss bank UBS estimates that by 2030, three-fifths of new cars sold in China will be powered by batteries instead of fossil fuels.
If the University of Exeter's predictions come true, 2024 would be a historic year in the fight against climate change. It would be the first year in which CO2 emissions would fall, an important step towards limiting global warming.
However, it is important to note that CO2 emissions remain very high. To limit global warming to 1.5°C, global CO2 emissions must be halved by 2030. Therefore, further measures to reduce CO2 emissions are required in the coming years.
With information from: