Climate change: 216 million more migrants by 2050?

Will immigration explode because of climate change? Yes, if we are to believe the World Bank, a report of which estimates that 216 million people could migrate by 2050 because of its negative effects on their living conditions.

Decline in agricultural production, water shortage, rise in sea level. The reasons for these future population displacements are multiple, describes the institution, based in Washington (United States).

Its new report, published on Monday and relayed by AFP, complements the first, published in 2018, which focused on three regions of the world: sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America. He then projected 143 million “climate migrants” by 2050 for these parts of the developing world. This time, the World Bank added three other regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa as well as the part comprising Eastern Europe and Central Asia, in order to develop “a global estimate. “.

Host countries overwhelmed?

The situation is not, however, irreversible. “If countries now start reducing greenhouse gases, reducing development gaps, restoring vital ecosystems and helping people adapt, climate migration could be reduced by around 80%, to 44%. million people by 2050, ”says Juergen Voegele, World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development.

Conversely, without decisive action, there will be “hot spots” of climate migration, with significant repercussions for the host countries, which will have to deal with this migratory wave in addition to the many already existing flows.

For now, the World Bank predicts that by 2050, sub-Saharan Africa could see up to 86 million climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million; South Asia, 40 million; North Africa, 19 million; Latin America, 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 5 million.

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