Amid a highly turbulent geopolitical landscape, the global chessboard is being reconfigured as China expands its dominance in Afghanistan, sparking concern in the international community. Beijing surprised again with its founding diplomatic and economic relations with the Taliban government, although he is considered an outcast in most countries. The security, economic and humanitarian vacuum following the end of the US occupation has significant implications for the Asian giant’s interests in the region.
This rapprochement has sparked great interest, high-level meetings are taking place between officials of both nations and new agreements are being signed on minerals or improving transport routes. Although China has downplayed these ties, its investments and presence are increasing. This new approach has created opportunities for a war-torn nation seeking to rebuild its economy and find lasting stability following the withdrawal of foreign troops.
While other countries have taken a cautious stance and are watching the rise of the Taliban regime with suspicion, Xi Jinping He seems ready to take advantage of the situation. However, this approach is not without controversy and raises questions about the long-term implications for both the region and the rest of the world.
In September, China became the first country to appoint a new ambassador to Kabul, and two weeks ago the Taliban government’s envoy in Beijing presented his credentials to China’s supreme leader. The Chinese foreign spokesman Wang Wenbinbelieves that “with more vigorous efforts to address the concerns of all parties, diplomatic recognition of the Afghan government will come naturally.”
Beijing has prioritized trade and its national security and has refused to interfere in Afghanistan’s interim government, consistent with its policy of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs. Afghanistan has therefore received significant financial assistance from China, including investments in infrastructure initiatives such as roads, trains and power plants. An example of this is the China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Economic Corridor 2016, whose aim is to increase trade and investment in the country. This strategy is to stimulate the Afghan economy in order to influence its politics in the long term, because according to Chinese calculations, the Afghan population will turn away from extremism if the lower levels of society are economically strengthened.
As the world’s second-largest economy continues to face criticism that it is creating debt traps for cash-strapped countries, Xi is taking steps that could benefit the massive push to expand infrastructure. All of this suggests that she is ready for this Expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Afghanistan and make significant investments. The country is forging trade ties with the Taliban as part of its BRI, which aims to strengthen China’s economic and geopolitical power over the region. A stable Afghanistan will provide Beijing with a reliable land connection to Iran and the rest of the Middle East.
The Taliban want investment to revive their economy, international legitimacy and votes from China to join multilateral organizations. They can thus use Afghanistan’s rich natural reserves as bargaining chips to advance their own international political and economic goals.
Likewise, Afghanistan’s mineral reserves are strategically important to Beijing as the country seeks to strengthen its position in its global supply chain through exploitation Raw materials such as cobalt, lithium or rare earth metals. Acquiring these could strengthen China’s dominance in battery storage technology and give it a competitive advantage over the West. Despite the country’s difficulties, China has managed to secure rights to valuable resources, such as oil from the Amu Darya basin in the north and the huge Mes Aynak copper mine near Kabul.
Last year, Chinese authorities said the Taliban needed to reform before completing diplomatic ties. To gain full diplomatic recognition, this government would have to initiate policy changes, improve security and restore relations with its neighbors.