The question is no longer whether the war between Israel and Hamas will spread in the Middle East, but rather how deep this spread will be and what consequences it will have. For the researcher in the Middle East and North Africa program of the British think tank Chatham House based in London, Farea Al Muslimi. “The US-UK airstrike on Yemen is the latest violation of Yemen’s sovereignty and airspace since US airstrikes For the first time in 2002“The attacks were not random or arbitrary,” but had a symbolic effect and were, above all, reactive exposed to pressure from shipping and insurance companies They were also not disproportionate. “The attacked areas and military sites are actually a small matter in the broader context of the Houthis’ weapons and military capabilities, particularly their naval weapons.”
“The attacks are not surprising as they come after the Houthis “over-advanced” in the Red Sea They will ignore all calls to calm the situation – including a private formal letter recently sent by the UK to the group’s leaders on behalf of the international community –,” Farea Al Muslimi added. He also recalled that the most recent meeting of the UN Security Council came closest to international reporting on the attacks. Despite this legitimacy, no other country has joined the initiative beyond logistical support from Canada, the Netherlands and Bahrain. “The Saudis tried it in Yemen for nine years and it obviously didn’t work.”
For this reason, the Chatham House researcher believes airstrikes will not stop the Houthis. “quite the opposite”. “They are likely to expand their attacks on US and British ships and bases across the Arabian Peninsula. At this point, the Houthis have missiles, weapons and technology that make it very possible to attack US military bases in the Gulf.”
The Houthis are usually treated as “proxies” of Iran, i.e. militias spread across the Middle East. However, experts warn that the Yemeni rebels are more likely to be “allies” and have a high degree of autonomy from the mullahs’ regime. “They are smarter, better prepared and more equipped than anyone really recognizes,” warns Al Muslimi.
As for the role of Arab states, the most important is Saudi Arabia, with which the Houthis have had a bloody conflict since 2015. Riyadh, explains the analyst, tried to stay out of the conflict with Hamas, but “for the last year” he has been playing for a few months the role of Israel's first line of defense against Houthi attacks,shoot down some of their missiles“. This Friday, the containment and stabilization of the Red Sea was identified as one of the main routes of international trade.
“Similarly, Arab countries like Egypt are conflicted and disunited: for the need to confront the Houthiswhile they do not want to remain silent about Israel and the US position in Gaza.”
The other important player in the region that has a lot to contribute to the development and advancement of the Houthis is Iran. “It’s not clear how Iran will respond, but definitely.” prefers to keep the Houthis as useful scapegoat allies as he tries to save the wild card he has; Hezbollah. Since October 7, Iranians have largely been content to watch from afar.”
If we expand the focus beyond the Middle East, we come across China. Al Muslim warns: “Although some think Beijing would also be happy if the West were drawn into another bloody conflict.”or indeed has also suffered from the disruption of vital trade This depends on the routes on the Red Sea as well as the west.