The latest work involving the CSIC shows that half of the Amazon is heading towards complete collapse.
Our planet is at risk from the possible loss of almost half of the Amazon. In a new study published in the journal NatureScientists warn the world’s largest tropical forest is nearing a “tipping point” and could collapse by 2050 due to drought, deforestation and wildfires.
The region that acts as the lungs of the Earth is approaching a critical tipping point that could lead to a massive ecological collapse with far-reaching consequences for the global climate system.
In the coming decades, up to half of the Amazon could become grasslands or weakened ecosystems. This is a dangerous warning from an international research team, which also includes experts from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
Turning point
To reach these conclusions, the study authors analyzed the effects of rising temperatures, severe droughts, deforestation and wildfires.
Climate change, deforestation and severe droughts like those currently affecting the region are devastating large parts of the Amazon and preventing its regeneration, according to a new study. According to scientists, such stress could lead to the collapse of entire forest ecosystems in the most vulnerable areas of the tropical forest. This is terrible news.
The Amazon is home to more than 10% of the world’s biodiversity and is helping to stabilize the global climate by saving carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to about two decades of global warming.
The news says that by 2050, between 10 and 47% of this rainforest (almost half of the Amazon) will be under pressure, which could lead to widespread changes in the ecosystem, potentially leaving this important ecosystem unable to use the carbon stored within it absorbs or even releases more, which will lead to greater global pollution and increase its effects.
“We are approaching a potential large-scale tipping point and may be closer to it (both locally and system-wide) than we previously thought.“, Bernardo Flores from the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Florianópolis, Brazil and lead author of the study.
Climate consequences of losing half of the Amazon
If humidity continues to fall so much, important forests could eventually be converted to grasslands. The study authors explain that long-standing natural connections between environmental conditions and the Amazon rainforest ecosystem are being replaced by new connections, quickly affecting local wildlife and becoming increasingly difficult for the population living in the Amazon basin.
Borys Saksewski, co-author of the study, said: “The southeastern Amazon has already transitioned from a carbon sink to a carbon source, meaning current human pressures are too high for the region to maintain its rainforest status long-term.“. “But the problem doesn’t end there. Since tropical forests enrich the air with a large amount of moisture, which forms the basis for precipitation in the west and south of the continent, forest loss in one place can lead to forest loss in another place in a feedback loop. driven or just an inclination“
In recent months, large parts of the Amazon have been hit by a severe drought that has dried up vital waterways, withered crops and sparked wildfires. The study authors note that water scarcity is a common cause of disruption in the Amazon (which occurs when there is not enough water to meet human or ecological needs) and that global warming is exacerbating the effects of scarcity of this water resource.
The planet’s lungs could disappear
The Amazon is the largest tropical forest in the world. It covers 6.9 million square kilometers in 9 countries and accounts for approximately 40% of the South American continent. The forest, which makes up half of the world’s remaining tropical forests, is also one of the most diverse ecosystems, home to around three million plant and animal species and 1.6 million indigenous people.
But that’s not all: due to its cooling effect and its contribution to providing the region with rain and moisture, it is also an important regulator of climate cycles and is also one of the largest natural carbon sinks in the world, absorbing and storing carbon the equivalent of 15 to 20 years of global CO2 emissions from the atmosphere.
The researchers stated the following: “For example, we found that the Amazon rainforest cannot exist with an average annual rainfall of less than 1,000 mm per year. However, below 1,800 mm per year, abrupt transitions from rainforest to savanna-like vegetation are possible. This can be caused by individual droughts or forest fires, which have become more frequent and severe in recent years.”
“As global change accelerates, the likelihood increases that we will experience positive feedback loops in which forest loss cannot repair itself but is amplified.“.
References:
Flores et al. Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature
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