The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union, commonly known as Brexit, has been a long and complex process. It has been several years since the UK officially left the EU, and the effects are still being felt.
Economic Consequences
The economic impact of Brexit has been significant, with the Office of Budget Responsibility predicting a 15% reduction in the volume of UK imports and exports in the long term. This is expected to lead to a 4% reduction in productivity over the next 15 years. While the initial predictions of economic disaster did not come to pass, the UK’s economy has still faced significant challenges.
Migration and Border Control
One of the key issues during the Brexit referendum campaign was migration and border control. However, despite the promises of “recovering control of the border,” migration levels have actually reached record highs. The strict new rules to enter the country have reduced the arrival of community members, but the entrance of non-community members has increased dramatically. Net migration has risen from 250,000 to 728,000.
Political Fallout
Brexit has also had a significant impact on the UK’s political landscape. The Conservative Party has been plagued by infighting and controversy, with several leaders coming and going in the years since the referendum. The party’s handling of Brexit has been widely criticized, and it suffered its worst electoral defeat in history in 2024.
Future Negotiations
As the UK and EU prepare to review the withdrawal agreement and trade and cooperation agreement in 2025, there are still many unresolved issues. The impact of the return of competencies, regulatory alignment and divergence, and the status of Gibraltar are just a few of the challenges that need to be addressed. The UK must also navigate its new place in the world, facing challenges such as the Russian war in Ukraine, the growing assertiveness of China, and the return of Donald Trump to the US political scene.
Public Opinion
In the years since the Brexit referendum, public opinion has shifted significantly. Many voters now express “Bregret” and would prefer to return to the EU. However, there is no appetite for another referendum, and the UK must find a way to move forward and make the most of its new relationship with the EU.