Brazil: what now, Jair Bolsonaro?

From Rio de Janeiro

Weakened by the accumulation of unsolved problems, which are aggravated, with the support at its lowest level, Jair bolsonaro (Photo) he played all his cards in the mobilizations of September 7, the independence holiday in Brazil. For two months, when he started callingr At these mobilizations, Bolsonaro announced that they would be the largest the country had ever known – later he managed to predict that there would be two million people in São Paulo.

Attack on the judiciary

He proposed direct attacks on the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and even the Chinese Embassy so that the day would lead to a counterattack. This, because Bolsonaro had come to the conclusion that there would be a coup against him, from the judiciary and the media, which would have released Lula from jail to take him to the presidency of Brazil.

Likewise, Bolsonaro considers that the judiciary would not let him govern, simply because the STF has begun to make decisions against the bolsonaristas that systematically threaten the same judiciary on the internet. Several of them have been arrested. In addition, they have been prevented from collecting resources online and their bank accounts have been blocked.

Disappointment

With the demonstrations on Tuesday, Bolsonaro intended to regain strength, retake the initiative and reinforce his attacks on the judiciary. But except in San Palbo, the number of people was less than he expected. The newspaper Economic value, for example, he claims that everything was disappointing for Bolsonaro, and that in Brasilia, for example, attendance reached five percent of what was expected.

In his speeches, in Brasilia and São Paulo, Bolsonaro concentrated his attacks on the judiciary, affirming that the magistrates will pay a price if they do not back down and continue taking actions to limit the president’s capacity for action. Bolsonaro reiterated his willingness to disobey recent judicial decisions contrary to his interests, a position that drastically aggravates the confrontation between the two powers. Bolsonaro even said that he would convene the Council of the Republic, a body that could decree interventions in provinces or directly a state of siege at the national level. But, not having positive responses from the members of that Council, he withdrew the call.

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Wear

If with the march on Tuesday Bolsonaro wanted to change the situation of wear and tear that he has been suffering throughout this year, he did not succeed. On the contrary, wear has increased. The fear of violent actions, of some kind of invasion of the Capitol in Brazil, was not reflected in the facts. The PSDB itself, Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s party, called a meeting to discuss the possibility of impeaching Bolsonaro.

At the same time, as is traditional in Brazil, on this same date it was celebrated, throughout the country, the Cry of the Excluded. This year it had the added value of serving as a manifestation of repudiation of Bolsonaro. Rallies were held in 17 capitals and in 47 other cities throughout the country. The opposition will soon resume the dynamics of national mobilizations against Bolsonaro.

Stagnation and pandemic

After this date, the country returns to its situation of economic crisis, given that the rise in inflation and political instability have ended the possibility of some kind of recovery. Bolsonaro will have to face the election year with economic stagnation.

There are no signs of recovery with a level of unemployment of more than 14 percent, to which is added a much larger number of people living in a precarious situation. The social crisis is only going to get worse.

The pandemic continues, although the number of cases and deaths has dropped, due to the progress, albeit slow, of vaccination. Only a little more than 30 percent of the population has received the second dose and is fully protected.

The day after will not be good for Bolsonaro. He played all his cards but the demonstrations were not as big as he expected, there were no attacks on the STF or the Chinese embassy. He couldn’t give the kickback he had mentioned. It was not strengthened. It didn’t even stop its wear.

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