Boris Johnson faces the Tory vote and could fall as Prime Minister

Boris Johnson’s moment of truth has arrived. The booing on Friday upon his arrival at Saint Paul’s Cathedral for Queen Elizabeth II’s jubilee was the straw that broke the patience of his own parliamentary caucus after the colossal Party Gate messes that left the Prime Minister very badly off. the Conservative Party and even Scotland Yard.

The leader of the conservative deputies, Graham Brady, received at least 54 letters from legislators stating that they want the prime minister to resign. In the internal regulations, when 15% of the bench takes that step, the future of the leader at the head of the party (and therefore, of the executive) is submitted to a vote of all the conservative deputies. Tonight – between 18:00 and 20:00 UK time – the result of this vote will show whether Johnson’s days are numbered, whether he survives with some dignity or whether he will limp along like a duck for the next few weeks and perhaps months.

The Endless Party Gate Scandal

The Partygate, which began with journalistic revelations six months ago, has hit the prime minister hard and to the Conservatives in the polls and in the recent municipal elections. The attempt to close the case with the Scotland Yard verdict on 15 of the parties investigated – it is estimated at the journalistic level that there were more than 100 during the different periods of confinement – ​​was a boomerang that left the government even more groggy. The Metropolitan Police only fined Johnson £50 for one meeting: a photo of the Prime Minister cheerily toasting another of the parties was published a few days later. The credibility of the Metropolitan Police has plummeted and there is a call for a parliamentary inquiry into his conduct.

Johnson’s new apology to the House of Commons last month did not convince anyone: A parliamentary committee is investigating him to determine whether he deliberately lied to the House when he denied taking part in events in Downing Street that breached lockdown rules.

Several deputies who occupy important positions in the government have endorsed the prime minister. They have no choice if they want to keep their job. In case of not doing so, under the principle of collective responsibility, it would be up to them to resign. The problem for the prime minister is the deputies who are not part of the government.

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One of the most striking examples of Johnson’s lack of support in certain sectors of the parliamentary party is criticism from one of his staunchest allies, former Treasury Secretary Jesse Norman. The deputy criticized Johnson’s conduct at Partygate and added other “profoundly wrong” policies such as the one followed with the Northern Ireland protocol in relation to Brexit, the sending of refugees to Rwanda or the privatization of Channel 4. Norman stated that he would not be part of his government again under any circumstances.

How is the vote on the future of Boris Johnson?

In Johnson’s Garden of Forking Paths the first possibility is that it achieves the support of more than 50% of the 359 deputies that the conservatives have. In that case, the prime minister would “technically” survive. The internal regulations say that we will have to wait 12 months to vote on the issue again, but politically a lot will depend on the total support that it obtains in the vote. If Johnson has a comfortable victory, he can breathe a little until the next crisis (Let the parliamentary committee decide that he deliberately lied to the camera, for example). But if he wins by little more than 50%, his situation will be politically very difficult to sustain.

The other possibility is that more than 50% of the deputies decide that Johnson should go. In this case there will be an election of the new leader of the conservative party which will take place in two stages. In the first, candidates are presented to replace Johnson: the deputies vote in successive rounds until they are left with two candidates. The final decision takes place in the second stage in which the Conservative Party as a whole – and not just its legislators – votes on who will be its leader and new prime minister.

Everything will depend on what happens tonight.

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