The CEO of analytics company Messari, Ryan Selkis, has made a very high prediction for the bitcoin (BTC) price via Twitter. According to Selkis, the value of BTC could rise to $100,000 within 12 months. He believes this is realistic given the current banking crisis and the macroeconomic situation.
My rough prediction for the next twelve months:
1. More bank failures in the next couple of weeks.
2. Fed cuts / QE is back!
3. BTC climbs, sustained moderate inflation.
4. “Outside Money” / “Sound Money” -> $100k / BTC.
5. Institutions buy faster than Feds can shut down.
— Ryan Selkis 🥷 (@twobitidiot) March 17, 2023
Best case scenario for bitcoin
Although Selkis indicates that the forecast is optimistic, and therefore could be lower, he thinks it is certainly a possibility. The reason for this is the banking crisis. He believes this one is not over yet, and more banks will fall.
To counter the banking crisis, the Federal Reserve will have to adjust its policy. Quantitative easing and falling interest rates could fuel the economy. Inflation will increase, and the ‘safe haven’ called bitcoin will be an interesting choice for institutions. According to Selkis, these institutional investors can push the value of bitcoin to $100,000.
“This is an optimistic bet for the future. BTC will be treated as a life raft and a safe way out. But it is important that institutions that buy bitcoin defend it with us. This is the best scenario at the moment.”
The macroeconomic situation is changing
Or this one best case scenario will become reality remains to be seen. We speculated on this exact scenario in October last year. With the developments this week, the first steps that confirm this scenario seem to have been taken.
The American bank JPMorgan came with the news that the Federal Reserve will make no less than $ 2 trillion in liquidity available to banks in need. The prolonged increase in interest rates by the Fed has given the banks the necessary liquidity problems. It seems that the Fed can no longer afford to raise interest rates any more.
The only choice for the Fed is a ‘pivot’, a policy reversal and lowering rates again. We may be seeing the start of this scenario right now.