Bitcoin’s price dipped sharply on October 18, sliding below a key technical support level, as global macroeconomic anxieties like U.S.-China trade tensions and persistent concerns over regional bank stability overshadowed the cryptocurrency’s underlying adoption momentum. The digital asset traded at USD $107,311.75, representing a 1.48% decline in a 24-hour period.
This drop reflects a broader market aversion to risk. Renewed trade tensions between the United States and China, including reports of proposed 100% tariffs, have contributed to investor caution. Fears regarding the stability of regional banks, reminiscent of the 2023 crisis, also weighed heavily on traditional financial markets, dragging Bitcoin down due to its correlation with the S&P 500.
Bitcoin’s value briefly touched a 15-week low below USD $105,000, a critical support level. Analysts noted that declines in regional bank stocks, stemming from credit issues, had previously impacted Bitcoin, causing a 6.8% fall in earlier trading sessions.
The short-term technical outlook for Bitcoin appears bearish. Its price currently trades below both its 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-7) of USD $111,178.87 and its 30-day SMA of USD $115,303.94. This signals a confirmed downtrend.
Key support levels are identified at USD $105,000 and the psychological threshold of USD $100,000. Resistance levels are seen at USD $110,000 (SMA-7) and USD $115,000 (SMA-30). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 suggests weakness but is not yet oversold.
Derivatives markets show dominant short positions, with funding rates on perpetual contracts registering a negative 0.01%. Open interest in CME futures increased by 5% to USD $30 billion, further indicating bearish bets among institutional investors.
Despite the short-term headwinds, some underlying metrics for Bitcoin remain stable. Daily transactions hover around 450,000, and spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to absorb approximately 50,000 Bitcoin weekly. This points to ongoing institutional adoption.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at USD $2.1394 trillion, with 19.75 million of its 21 million total supply currently in circulation. However, active holders saw a 2% decrease, signaling heightened caution among participants.
The overall market sentiment is described as cautious, with recession fears outweighing optimism for long-term institutional adoption. The prevailing thesis remains neutral to bearish in the short term, with potential for upside if the U.S. Federal Reserve were to implement interest rate cuts.