Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell to $28,700 on Monday but then quickly recovered above $29,000. Yesterday afternoon, bitcoin started to surge sharply, leading to a surge just above $30,200 last night. Bitcoin then fell back to $29,750 and is currently looking for support here.
Bitcoin briefly fell to $29,600 but is rallying to $29,796 on Binance and $27,126 on Bitvavo at the time of writing. This means that the bitcoin price is up 2.2% today. Total market cap is $580 billion and dominance is 48.9%. The Fear & Greed Index is 50 (Neutral).
The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is at 50 ~ Neutral
Current price: $29,766 pic.twitter.com/3jrre9bJI2
– Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) August 9, 2023
Is volatility returning?
We’ve written a number of times lately that Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to historically low levels, partly due to low trading volumes on exchanges. According to CCData, the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIN) even one all-time low reached 36.3 on August 6.
Chart of the week: $BTCThe Volatility Index (BVIN) hit an all-time low of 36.3 on August 6th.
— CCData (@CCData_io) August 8, 2023
Of course, that was a few days ago and with this surge, the return of volatility could begin.
Inflation figures could cause a stir tomorrow
For example, the American consumer price index (CPI) will be published tomorrow. Inflation figures are likely to rise slightly this time, which could cause fear in the financial markets.
The consensus estimate for Thursday’s inflation report is 3.3% (US headline CPI yoy in July), up from 3.0% last month, the lowest we’ve seen in March 2021. The actual number will be…
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 9, 2023
That doesn’t sound good for Bitcoin either. However, Bitcoin has recently been so weakly correlated with other markets that it is becoming increasingly difficult to estimate how the BTC price will react to macroeconomic developments.
Bitcoin mining difficulty is increasing today
First, today we are witnessing another surge in so-called bitcoin mining difficulty, or difficulty. According to BTC.com, the difficulty level will be adjusted in about 5 hours. However, this time it’s estimated to be just 0.3%, so it’s unlikely to make a big splash.
U.S. dollar #hashprice full (30D) is nearing its 1 year lows.
It is currently around 27%, while the 1-year low was 25.4% on Jan. 7th.
When the volume remains low for a long period of time, a spiral spring effect typically occurs.
See what happened last time👇: pic.twitter.com/DBF63N7gB5
— Hashprice Guy (@CryptoOptionsOG) August 8, 2023
Bitcoin whales seem to be eye-catching
Still, with yesterday’s surge, we see some positive developments. Almost $400 million worth of bitcoin was transferred whales, Major investors, including those from stock exchanges, reports analyst James van Straten.
— James V Streets (@jimmyvs24) August 9, 2023
Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju reports that bitcoin whales even took “giga-long” positions at $29,000. This indicates a certain trust from these large investors, but it can also lead to a so-called long press Outcome when other factors are not on their side.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) August 8, 2023
Bitcoin price resumes the fight at $30,000
According to analyst Mortensen Bach, a surprise in inflation numbers could potentially propel Bitcoin higher, eventually breaking through $30,000.
– BACH (@MortensenBach) August 8, 2023
Analyst Rekt Capital remains a little more cautious. What matters to the analyst is that the price closes above $29,250 this week to show that selling pressure is easing by around $30,000.
#BTC jumped to ~$30,000 straight away
Last week and sometime in late April, $BTC was able to do the same but ended up wicking up
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 8, 2023
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