Due to the many economic developments, it was already expected that it would be a very volatile week for bitcoin (BTC). For the time being, this volatility is turning out more positive than was feared at the beginning of this week.
As a result, fear begins to subside at an accelerating pace, FOMO kicks in and the market is even talking about a Fed of Powell pivot. Yet many analysts remain very divided and are even warned of a “bull trap.”
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 39. Neutral
Current price: $23,714 pic.twitter.com/c3kZDsoWp8— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) July 29, 2022
Bitcoin price rises 4.5%
The bitcoin price briefly crossed above USD 24,000 more than a week ago, but had fallen all the way back to USD 20,750 last Tuesday. Bitcoin then began to rise cautiously and then the Federal Reserve announced a 75bps rate hike on Wednesday.
That was less high than was feared and the BTC price immediately made a big jump. Yesterday, bitcoin pushed against resistance around USD 23,000 for most of the day. Bitcoin then jumped again after the publication of the US gross domestic product.
Since last night, bitcoin has been pushing resistance around USD 24,000 and has already peaked at USD 24,160 twice, including this morning. The BTC price is dropping slightly at the time of writing and stands at $23,950 on Binance and $23,400 on Bitvavo. This means that the BTC price is currently 4.5% in the plus.
Bitcoin rises after GDP and Apple and Amazon figures
Normally, the definition is used that if GDP shrinks for two quarters in a row, we are officially in an economic recession. That appeared to be the case in the US yesterday, but the White House now seems to want to use a different definition for a recession.
Doocy: “Why are White House officials are redefining recession?”
Jean-Pierre: “We are not redefining a recession.”
Doocy: “A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.”
Jean-Pierre: “That’s not the definition.” pic.twitter.com/IpJkaxMVAS
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 27, 2022
Nevertheless, it is a sign that the US central bank may become more cautious in its monetary policy and with the hike in interest rates. As a result, fears in more risky financial markets eased. In addition, the quarterly figures of Apple and Amazon turned out to be more positive than expected and that also attracted stock markets with which bitcoin still has a very high correlation.
Talked about this on spaces earlier, both AAPL and AMZN ripping higher after earnings as expected. pic.twitter.com/F5EdYVz1DQ
— KALEO (@CryptoKaleo) July 28, 2022
Bitcoin price still struggles with 200-week moving average
Nevertheless, we must keep in mind that bitcoin is still battling the area between the 200-week moving average, which is now around $22,800, and the 200-week exponential moving average, which is now around $26,750. There seems to be a lot of resistance here now.
#Bitcoin is retesting the 200-week moving average cloud once again, as potential resistance.
200EMA
200 SMAAfter using this moving average cloud as dynamic support for 5 years, it is now threatening to act as resistance. pic.twitter.com/K48gklELlU
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) July 28, 2022
Bitcoin miners are still under pressure
In addition, analysis company Glassnode reports that bitcoin miners are still under considerable pressure. The so-called mining pulse is in an upward trend, which means that the intended transaction time of 10 minutes is not achieved on average.
This is due to a declining hash rate, or computing power of the network and that is probably due to capitulation among miners. It is likely to lead to a further decrease in the so-called difficulty rate, or level of difficulty. That could ease the pressure somewhat, although an increase of about 1.2% is currently estimated.
the #Bitcoin Mining Pulse is experiencing a sustained uptrend, indicating blocks are coming in slower than the target 10mins.
This signifies continued stress in the mining industry as hashrate comes offline, and difficulty adjusts downwards.
Live Chart: https://t.co/ITLFuFzQ98 pic.twitter.com/Tk3bOs8I0E
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 28, 2022
Analyst warns of bull trap
Although the market is a lot more positive and bullish analyst Il Crypto Capo warns of a so-called “bull trap,” or bull trap. In addition, it seems as if the price is in an uptrend, but it actually does not.
This is one of the biggest bull traps of the year, but you won’t see it until it’s too late.
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) July 28, 2022
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#BTC doing its thing… despite the ‘macro’. pic.twitter.com/A0sCKP61Br
— dave the wave🌊🐫 (@davthewave) July 28, 2022
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