The bitcoin price is good at the time of writing. In Asian trading hours, the price rose by just under 0.54 percent to $ 30,737. Bitcoin still seems to be riding on the momentum that came after news of the Spot Bitcoin ETF filing by BlackRock and some other major institutional investors.
From a macroeconomic perspective, there are currently few positive developments for bitcoin.
Recession coming?
At the moment, the number of indicators pointing towards a recession for the United States can no longer be counted on one hand. For example, how about the Real Gross National Income (rGNI), which is currently showing a negative year-over-year score. That means real income in the United States is down from exactly one year ago.
Now that in itself need not immediately be a drama, were it not for the fact that a negative score for this indicator from 1948 onwards resulted in a recession every time. In that respect, it is strange that shares are currently moving towards an all-time high and that Bitcoin is also showing mainly positive price action.
One possible explanation for this is the fact that the US Treasury Department started supporting the market with additional liquidity from about the fourth quarter of 2024. The reserves of the Treasury Department had to be used because the United States had reached its debt ceiling.
As a result of the use of those reserves, part of the strict policy of the Federal Reserve was neutralized and prices (particularly of stocks) skyrocketed. This could be an explanation for the lack of price falls as a result of the imminent recession.
The bitcoin rate
As far as the bitcoin price is concerned, there seems to be little support fundamentally at the moment. The first real positive event is scheduled for April 2024 and I am of course talking about the halving.
There is a chance that we will have to face a US recession as a result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes over the past 15 months. What you often see in a recession is people selling risk assets for more safe assets.
Safe assets during a recession are assets you can use to pay the bills and buy groceries. In the case of the United States, US dollars.
For the next few months, until the recession hits and we see the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve, I’m not yet bullish on bitcoin. After that, a very bullish scenario can arise, if the first interest rate cut by the Fed, the possible approval of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF and the bitcoin halving fall at the same time.