The resistance around $27,400 turned out to be too strong yesterday. Bitcoin (BTC) then fell all the way to $26,350, possibly one lowerlow. Still, bitcoin immediately recovered from the dip, but it did not immediately manage to recapture $27,000. At the time of writing, the price comes in at $26,860 on Binance and $24,925 on Bitvavo. This puts the bitcoin price down 1.9% today. The total market capitalization is $521 billion and the dominance is 46.3%. The Fear & Greed Index comes out at 48 (Neutral).
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 48. Neutral
Current price: $26,839 pic.twitter.com/lLHUhel9up
— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) May 19, 2023
Rising stocks, falling gold price
The ongoing debt ceiling talks in the US are currently gripping the market and investors are extra cautious. Positive signals about a deal caused stock markets to rise sharply yesterday. However, bitcoin is behaving more like gold again this year and gold took a big hit yesterday.
Gold continues to get hit hard and closed at a 2-month low pic.twitter.com/G3HoxoVMYT
— Barchart (@Barchart) May 18, 2023
Powell Speech and Interest
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give another speech later today. He may be talking about the upcoming interest rate decision of the US central bank. A few weeks ago, 0% of the market still thought that the Fed would raise interest rates again, but now 37% already expect this.
Exactly 1 month ago, the market was pricing in a 16% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at the June meeting. Today’s, that’s a 0% likelihood.
Meanwhile, the odds of another +0.25% have risen from 10% last week to 36.7% today.
The Fed still isn’t done. pic.twitter.com/gdhJbWEgu8
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) May 18, 2023
Sell Bitcoin miners
It looks like bitcoin miners are once again opting to take profits. More than 2,000 BTC worth $54 million has been sold by BTC miners in the past 24 hours. This can lead to increased sales pressure.
#Bitcoin Miner Reserves dropped by more than 2,000 #BTC over the last 24 hours, which suggests miners have sold around $54 million worth of $BTC. pic.twitter.com/wLPYJY7zU2
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 18, 2023
Bitcoin volatility extremely low
Despite all bearish signals, the price is still holding up reasonably well. As a result, volatility drops to a remarkably low level. This could lead to a major breakout, either down or up, IntoTheBlock reports.
$BTC volatility historically reaches significant lows.
📉60-day annualized volatility has fallen below 40% for the 8th time in the past 5 years
💰 On average $BTC vol remains below this level for 5 weeks and results in a 46% price gain
⚠️However, 3 crashes of 50% have followed… pic.twitter.com/TW8NozgIqE
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) May 18, 2023
The 200-week moving average
Bitcoin continues to hold above the infamous 200-week moving average, which is currently hovering around $26,200. The market often sees a dip below this limit as a very bearish signal.
#Bitcoin is currently testing the 200 week moving average. pic.twitter.com/syvhTAUFMW
— Mikolaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) May 18, 2023
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